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Arlington Park

King: Single Da Big Hoss in Arlington pick five

Byron King|Aug 11, 2016
Da Big Hoss wins the Belmont Gold Cup
Emily Shields Da Big Hoss, winner of the Belmont Gold Cup, is the morning-line favorite for the Grade 3 American St. Leger.

It is a sound practice for a casino gambler to know the house and game rules. Some casinos and games are kinder to bettors than others. Horse racing is similar, with tracks having different takeouts and often varying takeouts from wager to wager.

Arlington Park, which hosts the Arlington Million on Saturday, is a good example. According to the Horseplayers Association of North America, Arlington has a takeout of 25 percent for trifectas, superfectas, pick threes, and pick fours – a pretty steep rake – but does offer a bettor-friendly takeout of 15 percent for its pick five and Super Hi 5.

With that in mind, here’s a ticket for Million Day that supports the lower takeout – in this case, the pick five, a wager in which I will single Da Big Hoss in the American St. Leger.

Race 5, the Bruce D. Memorial

Cortege (7) is the fastest horse on synthetic based on Beyer Speed Figures, and Two Step Time (9) is the classiest on that surface, and they are the primary plays, or “A” runners when plugged into DRF’s TicketMaker program.

I can’t feel confident in these two runners, so I will toss in a couple of backup “B” runners in the class-dropping Pilot House (2), who gets a pass for a fade to sixth in the fast-paced Indiana Derby, and Michael J., a winner on Polytrack at Keeneland who ran a career-best 78 Beyer in his first route last out at Indiana Grand on July 14.

Race 6, the American St. Leger

Da Big Hoss (5), one of the best turf stayers in the country not named Flintshire, has hands down the best form of any American in this 1 11/16-mile turf race, and with Messi reportedly a scratch and the Europeans looking second rate, this seems like a race to single. Da Big Hoss is the lone “A.”

Race 7, the Secretariat

A Grade 1 race for 3-year-olds, the Secretariat seems to have a quartet who stand above the rest, so those four all go down as “A” runners: American Patriot (2), Surgical Strike (7), Long Island Sound (8), and Beach Patrol (9).

Whoever gets the best trip likely will prove best in a closely matched field.

Race 8, the Beverly D.

Although Sea Calisi (13) acts like a quality filly deserving of winning the Grade 1 Beverly D., I’m inclined to take a couple of shots with a pair of “B” runners in Zipessa (9) and Faufiler (12) for the potential they have to fatten the pick-five payoff if they can upset.

Of the two, Faufiler is the more likely to challenge, though the 15-1 morning-line odds on Zipessa are attractive, even if she hasn’t shown that she can stretch out to the distance of 1 3/16 miles.

Race 9, the Arlington Million

Last up is the big race, the Arlington Million, where four horses are “A” plays for me: the European invader Mondialiste (9), who has had success in North America; Wake Forest (10), a high-class turfer for elite turf trainer Chad Brown; World Approval (11), a proven Grade 1 winner who has won at Arlington; and Tryster (12), who has kept top company in Dubai and Britain this year.

The tickets

Plugging the above-mentioned horses into TicketMaker with a $176 budget, you can play a $1.50 all-“A” ticket, a $1 ticket with any combination of four “A” horses and a “B,” and a 50-cent ticket with any combination of three “A” horses and two “B” runners.

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