King: Shane's Girlfriend can outshine favorites in Rachel Alexandra

Although the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes is the richest and most noteworthy of the six stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, the race is a pass for this horseplayer. The horses with the best chances are the likely favorites.

The three graded races that precede the Risen Star are more attractive from a wagering standpoint, with the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra holding the most appeal, followed closely by the Mineshaft and the Fair Grounds Handicap. So, let’s take a look at those races.

Rachel Alexandra

Shane’s Girlfriend, one of the flashiest performers in the 2-year-old filly division last year, deserves to be favored even though her 2017 debut resulted in a distant third behind Unique Bella and It Tiz Well in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez at Santa Anita. Instead, she is the third choice on the morning line at 3-1, behind 2-1 Valadorna, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up, and 5-2 Farrell, a winner of two consecutive stakes, including the Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds.

Valadorna and Farrell have talent, but they don’t stack up next to Shane’s Girlfriend. Valadorna ran second in a slow Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies that hasn’t produced a subsequent stakes winner, and Farrell defeated a suspect field in the Silverbulletday by 2 3/4 lengths in modest time, though over a muddy track that perhaps wasn’t her favorite type of surface.

Valadorna is surprisingly the only Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies starter who has won since that race, having taken an allowance Jan. 27 at Fair Grounds, but that came at 1-10 odds in a race that she seemingly couldn’t have lost. She won by a half-length, and though confidently handled, she wasn’t so confidently handled for me to like her as the Rachel Alexandra favorite.

As for Shane’s Girlfriend, she was mediocre in her first start of the year, though Unique Bella, now the heavy favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, has a way of making fillies look that way. Shane’s Girlfriend ought to benefit from that race, her first start back from a short layoff, and perform to her potential Saturday.

One need only watch the replay of the Grade 3 Delta Downs Princess last year, where Shane’s Girlfriend rolled to a 13 1/4-length victory in her second start, to know her ability.

Shane’s Girlfriend is also at a tactical advantage, having more speed than the late-running Valadorna, and I am envisioning a relatively nice trip for her on or near a modest pace.

Mineshaft Handicap

One race before the Rachel Alexandra, the presence of comebackers Eagle, Mo Tom, and International Star – all of whom figure to be overbet off the shelf – make the Mineshaft a potentially rewarding wagering opportunity. And I have an alternative I very much like: Dazzling Gem.

A promising 3-year-old of 2016 who ran third in the Louisiana Derby, Dazzling Gem most recently was second in the Louisiana Handicap, finishing three-quarters of a length behind Hawaakom, who last Monday ran second behind Gun Runner in the Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn Park.

I look for Dazzling Gem to tuck right behind the speed and hopefully get the jump on the comebackers, who are all closers. Dazzling Gem’s price is attractive if his odds stick close to his 5-1 morning line.

Fair Grounds Handicap

I’m not as confident in the chances of my selection in the Fair Grounds Handicap, Greengrassofyoming, but I am fairly confident that the public will overlook him, sending him off as an overlay at or above his 4-1 morning line.

In a contest in which little separates the leading contenders, with most of them having similar accomplishments and having run Beyer Speed Figures in the low to mid-90s, Greengrassofyoming should be a square price, having fallen just short of a couple of Fair Grounds Handicap rivals in recent starts. Still, his form is sharp, and he may benefit from the cutback from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/8 miles. Long, two-turn grass routes are seemingly what he does best.

A relatively even third last out in the 1 1/2-mile John B. Connally Turf Cup at Sam Houston, Greengrassofyoming is now back on a course where he rallied furiously to fall a nose short of Western Reserve in the 1 1/16-mile Buddy Diliberto Memorial earlier in the Fair Grounds meet. And even more telling of his two-turn potential is how well Greengrassofyoming ran in the 1 1/4-mile Arlington Million, where he rallied to be fourth, beaten 1 1/4 lengths.