King: Rodriguez shows faith that Summer Revolution can go long

As much as I like examining the past performances to identify a winner, sometimes it is what is not in the past performances that means just as much. By that, I don’t mean inside information but rather the intent of the connections, provided they are high-percentage and astute.

With that noted, I find it a vote of confidence that trainer Rudy Rodriguez has elected to run Summer Revolution in Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby at Parx despite the race drawing a full field led by Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and Preakness winner Exaggerator. That is a tall order for any horse, especially an inexperienced colt like Summer Revolution, who has started only three times, always in sprints.

I am interpreting this as a sign of faith that Rodriguez believes the horse can route, particularly when you consider that he could just as easily have run Summer Revolution in the six-furlong Gallant Bob Stakes earlier on Saturday’s card. That is where Noholdingback Bear, who edged Summer Revolution for third last out in the King’s Bishop, is favored.

That is not to imply that trainers are always right. They err, like everyone else. But I like that Rodriguez is swinging for the fences.

Beyond the positive trainer intent, Summer Revolution has other things to offer. He earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure in winning an allowance race at Saratoga on Aug. 7, and his close fourth in the King’s Bishop was quite good considering the quality of that field and that Summer Revolution didn’t break as well as usual.

All things being equal, I would have preferred to have seen less speed in the Pennsylvania Derby than what is signed on, circumstances that don’t figure to help an up-close stretch-out horse like Summer Revolution. But I believe in this horse’s ability, and if Mike Smith can work out a good trip, he could prove dangerous at odds around 8-1.

◗ Three races before the Pennsylvania Derby, I like Tale of Life in the Frosted Stakes.

A turf horse until this spring, Tale of Life has made significant strides since being transferred to dirt and equipped with blinkers. Four of his five dirt races have resulted in top-two finishes, and he has run quickly at times against quality allowance foes.

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Now he gets his class test against stakes horses, and though unraced under such circumstances on dirt, Tale of Life looks up to the challenge. He has tactical speed and an outside draw and figures to sit a favorable stalking/pressing trip under jockey Florent Geroux.

Adding to his appeal is that morning-line favorite Mr. Jordan might regress with his departure from Monmouth, his training base and where he has been running all summer.

◗ Lastly, the Dogwood Stakes is an interesting race Saturday evening at Churchill Downs.

There, I’m hopeful that One True Kiss will slip through the wagering cracks a bit, having just a 1-for-9 record this year and coming off two consecutive off-the-board finishes. Such results seem at least partially the result of aggressive placement.

She has raced in four graded stakes in her last five starts and should relish the opportunity to go against a modest field in the ungraded, $100,000 Dogwood. This race is significantly easier than the fields One True Kiss faced this summer when fifth in the Grade 1 Test and seventh in the Grade 2 Prioress.

Even if 5-2 morning-line favorite Emmzy is scratched – she is cross-entered in Sunday’s Remington Park Oaks – One True Kiss probably still goes off as the second or third betting choice.

I expect Saharan, who ran quickly in winning an allowance at Saratoga last out with a wide trip, to get bet down from her 7-2 morning line, and Mines and Magic should also prove popular with the return to Churchill, where she is unbeaten in two starts.