King: Real Solution key horse underneath in exactas
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In handicapping the entrants for Saturday’s Arlington Million, Real Solution’s strengths are clear. He comes off a Grade 1 victory in the Manhattan, a race that earned him the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure among the American horses, a 102; he won this race last year, albeit on disqualification; and his jockey, Javier Castellano, leads the nation in victories (221) and earnings (more than $15.8 million) through Wednesday.
Despite all that, I can’t bring myself to bet him to win in the Arlington Million, even with Real Solution being a somewhat respectable 5-2 on the morning line behind 7-5 favorite Magician.
Why not? Real Solution has shown a tendency to hang in some of his U.S. races.
Granted, he did no such thing in winning the Manhattan, surging past the leaders in a performance that was hard to criticize. But watch the replays of some of his other starts – this year’s Man o’ War and last year’s Turf Classic – and he acts like a horse who will at times not pass horses in deep stretch.
Even in winning the Million by disqualification last year, he seemed on his way to edge past The Apache, but after sticking a head in front inside the eighth pole, Real Solution was narrowly outfinished. Admittedly, he was fouled by The Apache, who carried him out and bumped him, which resulted in him deservingly being elevated to first, but the impression I got was that if Real Solution was a more tenacious competitor, he would have found a way to win on his own.
So, what to do in this year’s Million?
I plan to play Real Solution – not to win but on the bottom of exactas. He ought to run well but just might not get his win picture taken.
Knowing an exacta of Magician over Real Solution will pay peanuts, that bet doesn’t entice. So, my suggestion is to use three larger-priced horses over Real Solution (#6) in exactas – with those runners being Smoking Sun (#2), Up With the Birds (#5), and Side Glance (#7).
Just The Judge the value in Beverly D.
One race before the Million, a deeper field goes to post in the Beverly D., which drew many of the top female runners in the country, plus some good ones from Europe.
I see value in one such Euro invader in Just The Judge (#1, 6-1), a Group 1 winner overseas who, after a dull period in the second half of this year that continued into April, has since responded with a pair of thirds in top company overseas.
She drops 13 pounds after chasing Thistle Bird and Venus de Milo in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes, a contest in which she only missed second by three-quarters of a length.
This is not to suggest that she is a highly probable winner – she’s not. There is plenty of quality in this Beverly D., which drew 11 fillies and mares, and by my estimation, fair odds on her fall in the 4-1 or 9-2 range. So, she’s strictly a value play, with the hope that she sticks to her 6-1 morning line.
St. Leger: One Euro stands out
Although it takes a backseat to the Million, Beverly D., and even the Secretariat in terms of prestige, the $400,000 American St. Leger at Arlington is a quality race in its own right and unique in that it is contested at 1 11/16 miles on turf – or one-sixteenth shorter than 1 3/4 miles.
In races as long as this one that draw European shippers, I simplify things and just bet a European. The reasons: They typically have more experience in these super-marathon distances, and their bloodlines are geared more toward stamina than their American counterparts.
With four invaders from Europe, one cannot simply bet the one shipper. I settled on a choice this way: I questioned the current form of defending champion Dandino, viewed the accomplishments of the filly Moment In Time as suspect, and similarly had doubts about Havana Beat, a winner of just two races.
That left me with Eye of The Storm (#9, 6-1). A stakes winner at 1 1/2 and 2 miles, he has no trouble staying.
Although I will still back him on firm ground due to his success in marathon races, he becomes more appealing if it rains Saturday at Arlington. His better runs overseas have come on soft turf courses.