King: Race Day could offer value in competitive Razorback
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – When the past performances came out for Saturday’s card at Oaklawn Park – featuring the return of champions Untapable and American Pharoah in the Azeri and Rebel stakes – my first question in handicapping the races was: Is either vulnerable? Knowing they’d be short prices, if one or both were beaten, it would offer the opportunity for a fat payoff.
But try as I might, unless one goes badly off form for some unforeseeable reason or encounters a brutal trip, it is difficult to envision an upset. Both champs appear to be in another league from their rivals, and American Pharoah has the added benefit of being the apparent lone speed of the Rebel.
At least the Razorback for older horses at 1 1/16 miles is more competitive, and that’s the race this horseplayer is eager to play.
There, the morning-line favorite, Tapiture, does not even seem to be the most likely winner. To these eyes, the probable victor is Race Day, the 7-2 third choice on the morning line.
A Florida invader, Race Day has gotten dramatically faster this winter under the training of Todd Pletcher, posting a pair of Beyer Speed Figures in the 100s – a 109 in an allowance romp in December and a 106 when a close third behind Valid and Grande Shores in the Feb. 7 Fred Hooper at Gulfstream Park.
Most appealing is what I consider to be his somewhat-hidden early speed. His past performances don’t show any 1s or 2s at the first call in his races, but on the stretch out to a two-turn route in the Razorback, I believe he will indeed be right with the leaders after a quarter-mile.
The race is far less speedy than the one-turn, one-mile races in which he has been competing most recently, and a look at his Moss Pace Figures – he has averaged a 73.75 first-call rating in races at a mile or longer – are actually narrowly best in the Razorback field.
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This works to his advantage in a couple of ways. Obviously, it reflects a relative lack of speed in the race – likely meaning a slow pace – but it also puts him in position for a valuable confidence booster, perhaps poking his head in front and catching a breather at some stage before the field hits the stretch. And in looking at his last few races, we know he can finish.
Now, let’s hope he sticks to his 7-2 morning line, though a slight drop might be in the works.
Rebel Stakes
Though I see American Pharoah as the winner of the Rebel, I do find the race mildly appealing in terms of playing an exacta using the 15-1 shot Paid Admission underneath.
A former maiden $50,000 claimer, he looks like the type to slip through the wagering crack – not only will the public hammer American Pharoah in the wagering, but Madefromlucky, The Truth Or Else, and Bold Conquest will likely be the popular alternatives.
Paid Admission might be as good as those last three. He comes off a useful Beyer, an 85 earned in running second with a wide trip over the Oaklawn track, and he’s an improving horse who shows ascending speed figures in three straight races.
Even if he merely matches his last-race figure, he isn’t a whole lot slower than the secondary players behind American Pharoah. The Truth Or Else has a top Beyer of 90, earned in the slop; Madefromlucky an 87; and Bold Conquest an 85.
Paid Admission also has successful connections in his corner: trainer Chris Richard, owner Midwest Thoroughbreds, and jockey Shaun Bridgmohan.
That’s not to suggest that I think he can beat American Pharoah, but for those itching to play the race, he seems like the value to use beneath the favorite in the gimmicks.