King: Preliminary thoughts on Breeders' Cup races

Still a week removed, this horseplayer has Breeders’ Cup on the brain. When the pre-entries were announced Wednesday, I immediately started going over the past performances, looking for enticing betting prospects.

Although post positions, defections from races, and other factors could still alter my thinking between now and next weekend, here are some early observations and leanings:

Friday races

◗ Likely favorite Sunset Glow a play against in the Juvenile Fillies Turf

Although the most accomplished U.S. runner, having won the Del Mar Debutante and Sorrento Stakes this summer at Del Mar on Polytrack, which followed a runner-up finish on the Ascot grass in the 21-horse Albany Stakes – I’m not keen to back her as the likely favorite without a race going two turns.

As the wise, old saying goes, one shouldn’t back favorites trying something they have never done before.

Also, after outworking the quality 2-year-old colt Hootenanny and other stablemates in late September and early October, Hootenanny reportedly got the better of her in their last drill together at Keeneland on Oct. 20.

Not having been overly impressed with the U.S. stock, I’m looking for a European to win – with my preference Osaila and, to a lesser extent, longshot Sivoliere. Both have shown quality overseas and like racing on firm ground.

◗ Commemorative the choice with a good post in the Juvenile Turf

Most of the European raiders in the Juvenile Turf are more experienced at running distances shorter than the mile of the race, but not Commemorative. He has twice gone a mile after debuting at seven furlongs, a signal that his connections view him as a stayer.

I’m further encouraged by his rapid progress, running significantly faster with each race in his three-race career.

In the Juvenile Turf, as well as the Juvenile Fillies Turf, a favorable post position in a large field is vital. Inside or middle posts are best with a short run to the first turn.

Saturday races

◗ Tarfasha the play in Filly and Mare Turf

In researching how 3-year-olds fare vs. older horses in Breeders’ Cup races over the last 10 years in my column last week, I found Europeans were the ones best able to beat elders in the Turf and Filly and Mare Turf.

One 3-year-old filly from Europe has much to offer in this year’s Filly and Mare Turf: Tarfasha. She is a specialist at 1 1/4 miles, the distance of the race, having won two group races at the distance. And even her loss at 1 1/4 miles was a close fourth in the Group 1 Prix de L’Opera against many of Europe’s top female turf mares.

She is the probable second betting choice – and if so, she will offer value.

◗ Tightend Touchdown a longshot to consider in the Turf Sprint

Although just 1 for 4 this year, Tightend Touchdown has looked as good as in 2013, when he finished in a dead heat for second in this race.

Tightend Touchdown was beaten in his last two starts at Parx, efforts that won’t excite the betting public. But don’t underestimate the quality of those Parx sprint stakes, which are among the most lucrative around.

The Turf Sprint is probably the most competitive of any Breeders’ Cup race, but Tightend Touchdown could very well play a role in the outcome, as he did last year, when he was beaten a half-length at 18-1 odds.

◗ Calculator adds up to an overlaid contender in the Juvenile

American Pharoah handled Calculator in the both the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes, but there is cause to believe the outcome could be different in the Juvenile.

With American Pharoah expected to be the favorite, I suspect he is going to be targeted by the opposition, knowing they can ill afford to let him get away on the lead. Carpe Diem, Daredevil, and Souper Colossal all having quality speed, so don’t anticipate American Pharoah getting as easy a time of it early.

All things considered, Calculator did very well to modestly threaten in the FrontRunner when the pace was slow. And still being a maiden, Calculator may slip through the wagering cracks.