King: Postulation's strengths, odds make him a potential play

A distance-proven horse riding a win streak and remaining at the same class level usually starts as the favorite. So when that horse is not favored and is overlaid at the betting windows, it is an apt time to wager.

That opportunity could play out Saturday at Kentucky Downs in the Grade 3 Kentucky Turf Cup if Postulation slips through the wagering cracks. He sits at 9-2 on the morning line, third choice in the 12-horse lineup, despite having won two consecutive stakes at marathon distances on the grass, including the Grade 3 American St. Leger at Arlington Park Aug. 12.

The reason for this apparent lack of mutuel respect seems two-fold: he doesn’t have the “name” connections of other entrants, and he may be viewed with a degree of skepticism given how ordinary his form was prior to this summer.

This is a horse that did little in 2016, with his best race a second in an allowance at Presque Isle Downs. His first two races of 2017 resulted in rear-half finishes.

Then, given the chance to run in turf marathons, he suddenly was transformed and won the $50,000 Cape Hanlopen at Delaware by six lengths and the American St. Leger by 2 1/4.

And even though his trainer and jockey are not big names, they are winners. His Fair Hill-based trainer, Edward Graham, is 6 for 23 this year and exhibits a positive return on investment in many training categories. Jockey Jorge A. Vargas Jr. is winning at an 18 percent rate in 2017, and is 9-4-2-0 this year riding for Graham.

By no means does this mean Postulation is a sure thing in the Kentucky Turf Cup. This race drew a deep field, and the field for American St. Leger didn’t seem as classy as in past renewals. But he does appear likely to start at a price a couple of ticks higher on the board than he should.

Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf

Linda, a 5-1 shot in the Grade 3 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf, caught my eye. Although winless this year in four starts, she might be ready to return to her best Saturday.

She elevated her game when the weather got cooler last fall, winning an allowance at Kentucky Downs in September. She followed that with a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Valley View at Keeneland in October, and capped her season with a victory in the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere at Churchill Downs.

After a couple decent losing efforts in graded company to begin her 2017 season, running Beyers in the 90s and chasing some talented horses, she underachieved relative to her odds in two starts over the summer. But I’m hopeful that a short freshening will give her an opportunity to get back to her best, because she runs well when given time between starts.

Miss Temple City and Zipessa figure to draw the bulk of the wagering dollars. They are both classy, but there is little upside to betting either at relatively short prices given that they haven’t been sharp this year.

The same could be said of Linda, of course, so her appeal is price. She almost assuredly will offer the most value of the trio.

Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint

Bondurant also seems an attractive wagering option in the Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint. He showed good form in losing performances this year, and looks dangerous on the cutback to 6 1/2 furlongs after chasing some top-class turf milers.

Last out he ran third in the Forbidden Apple at Belmont, an ungraded race that drew a quality field, led by victorious Disco Partner and next-out winner Get Jets. So it was no surprise to see him get a 98 Beyer Speed Figure for that race.

I’d feel more confident in him if he had not gone unplaced in two prior starts on the Kentucky Downs turf course, but he did at least have excuses for those losses. One was his debut. He experienced some traffic issues in the other race, which came after a 9 1/2-month layoff.