King: Playing against two favorites in Churchill stakes
Saturday marks the return of a champion, as Eclipse Award-winning sprinter Work All Week races for the first time since winning the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in the Grade 3 Aristides at Churchill Downs.
It is a race Work All Week should win. He is the class, is going his best distance of six furlongs, and is running on dirt, a surface on which he is unbeaten in 10 starts.
He just doesn’t have to win. Work All Week has been away almost seven months, and on principle, I can’t back him at a short price after such a long stay on the sidelines. Even top-quality horses sometimes return a bit rusty from layoffs of a significant length, as we saw earlier this month when Palace Malice was beaten in his seasonal bow, admittedly when running a distance shorter than what he prefers in the six-furlong Diablo Stakes on May 10.
So, Work All Week’s extended layoff results in Alsvid being my value-based choice. I know he probably won’t beat Work All Week, but his chances likely will exceed those reflected in his odds. Alsvid, like others in the field, might see his odds grow from his 3-1 morning line with Work All Week likely to drop below his 6-5 starting price.
At 3-1 or above, that would make Alsvid a mild overlay after winning the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap in his last start with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure.
Granted, Alsvid doesn’t run that quickly all the time – more typically, he runs figures in the 90s – but being as sharp as he is and having won the Count Fleet and a preceding race, he could pair up, especially with more than seven weeks since his last race.
Alsvid warrants a win bet in the Aristides, and I also will try an exacta box with Gentlemen’s Bet, hoping Work All Week just doesn’t show up with anything close to his best and is out of the top two.
Try to beat The Pizza Man
Another comebacker from the same barn, The Pizza Man, returns in the Opening Verse one race later at Churchill and is also a play-against horse due to inactivity. A classy turf horse at his best at 1 1/2 miles or longer, The Pizza Man is kicking off his year in a 1 1/16-mile turf route, making this race seem like even more of a prep for him than Work All Week’s race is in the Aristides.
My alternative choice is Regally Ready, who won the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Churchill in 2011 but in recent years has developed into a miler.
Although seemingly in suspect form leading into this race, Regally Ready’s past performances look a bit worse than they should because one race came in the Cigar Mile, where he was outclassed, and another race was a comeback at Fair Grounds when facing a stakes-quality allowance field.
Look for much better with the return to Churchill, where he is 5 for 8 and won the Opening Verse last year.
Horseplayers also should respect the late-running Guys Reward, who is 5 for 14 on the Churchill turf.
Penn Mile: Go with Papacoolpapacool
The $500,000 Penn Mile on Saturday night looks competitive, as reflected in the Beyers of those in the race, with most running in the low to mid-80s.
So, I went looking for a horse who might get the best trip – saving ground while covered up before angling out or splitting horses at the top of the stretch. And in trying to visualize that scenario, I settled on Papacoolpapacool.
Drawn in post 3, he is less speedy than the two rivals to his inside and should be able to tuck behind them and follow their speed to obtain a good position into the first turn. Once there, Papacoolpapacool is going to need racing luck to secure running room late, but in winning three straight races in California, this horse showed that he has a nice turn of foot. So, if a hole opens, he likely will hit it quickly.
With morning-line favorite Night Prowler likely to take action, as well as the unbeaten Granny’s Kitten, who is sure to get bet down from his 6-1 morning line, expect odds of 7-2 or so on Papacoolpapacool.