King: Pick four ending with Belmont Stakes

What follows is a short analysis of the pick four that begins on race 8 at Belmont and continues through the Belmont Stakes, race 11.

Race 8, Just a Game

Although there are several classy turf females in this race, one mare stands out based on her form this year: Dickinson (1), a winner of three straight who just ran down Lady Eli to win the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley despite traffic trouble in the lane. She’s not a slam dunk by any means, but one has to take a stand somewhere, and to these eyes, this seems like the race to do it.

Race 9, Met Mile

Three horses stand above the others: Awesome Slew (12), Mor Spirit (9), and Sharp Azteca (5). Awesome Slew has elevated his game since being cut back to one turn; Mor Spirit is in top form in short routes, though he’s accustomed to running two turns, not one; and Sharp Azteca is likely the best one-turn miler of this group when at his best, though he could be disadvantaged by not having raced since finishing third in the Group 2 Godolphin Mile on March 25.

Race 10, Manhattan

World Approval (3) looked like his old self in winning the Dixie in dominant fashion and figures to be tough if he can replicate that effort on three weeks’ rest. Bettors are advised to also use the one-two finishers from the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on Derby Day, a race that had a better top-to-bottom field than the Dixie. Of that pair, I prefer runner-up Beach Patrol (1) slightly over the victorious Divisidero (7) due to the chance that the latter regresses with the departure from his favorite course, Churchill Downs.

And though I was disappointed with the U.S. debut of Time Test (4), I will use him based on how highly regarded he is, and with perhaps firm turf moving him up.

Race 11, Belmont

Irish War Cry (7) is the only horse in the Belmont to have run a pair of Beyer Speed Figures of 100 or higher, suggesting he is the most likely winner, but his inconsistency suggests that using other horses along with him is the wisest choice. Tapwrit (2) also looks dangerous at a price for trainer Todd Pletcher, having been freshened five weeks since a sixth in the Derby, and also moderately appealing are J Boys Echo (4) and Gormley (3).

The tickets

Playing the horses suggested above, a 50-cent pick four – 1 with 5,9,12 with 1,3,4,7 with 2,3,4,7 – costs $24.