King: Pair of 15-1 shots key horses in Churchill pick four
Short fields have greatly reduced the betting opportunities for horseplayers this spring at Churchill Downs, with races going to post with few horses and even fewer legitimate contenders.
So, it is a welcome sight to see that Saturday’s Grade 1 Stephen Foster draw a well-matched field of nine and will be followed by a 10-horse field in the Grade 3 Regret, a race that seems equally competitive.
The depth of these races provides opportunities to bet live longshots in the win pools, with Long River seeming the best value at his price at 15-1 on the morning line for the Foster, and Personal Diary, also at 15-1, in the Regret.
Neither is a sure-thing winner, but their chances are far better than those of typical 15-1 shots. The wagering strategy here is to back them in their individual races, as well as hook them up in an all-states pick four.
That bet, like all exotic wagers at Churchill, unfortunately, saw its takeout increase this meet from 19 percent to 22 percent. But at least for a pick four, that is not an extreme take, a little better than average by industry standards.
Here’s how I see the all-stakes pick four shaping up, beginning with the Matt Winn, the sixth race, using an A, B ranking strategy in tandem with Daily Racing Form’s Ticketmaker program.
::DRF Live: Get real-time updates and insights from DRF reporters and handicappers on Saturday
Matt Winn (race 6): Tapiture (#2), coming off a troubled run when 15th in the Kentucky Derby, is a legitimate favorite dropping into the Grade 3 Matt Winn, and given an anticipated quick pace.
One of the top 3-year-olds in Arkansas this spring, he also is a two-time winner at the Matt Winn’s distance of 1 1/16 miles on dirt, with one of those victories coming at Churchill Downs last fall, when he won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. He is the sole ‘A’ play of the Matt Winn.
But given that Tapiture also disappointed in his final Derby prep, running fourth in the Arkansas Derby, the inclination is to also use a couple of other horses as ‘B’ runners, Rise Up (#3) and Almost Famous (#5), both of whom come off fast, blowout wins.
Fleur De Lis (race 7): Flashy American (#6) is the upset choice to win the Fleur De Lis, coming off a victory in the Grade 3 Sixty Sails at Hawthorne and returning to a Churchill Downs main track over which she has compiled a 3-for-7 record. She also is at her best at this race’s distance of 1 1/8 miles, going 3 for 5 over the trip.
She is an ‘A’ play, along with the favorites On Fire Baby (#4) and Fiftyshadesofhay (#5) – two mares who have made about $2 million between them.
Hopefully, Flashy American can upset and eliminate a lot of those players who key either or both of the favorites, but if not, On Fire Baby and Fiftyshadesofhay are on the tickets, with the aim to stay alive with longshot opportunities to come in the final two legs.
Stephen Foster (race 8): Revolutionary (#1) is the most likely winner on form and therefore an ‘A’ play, but at 2-1 in a closely matched field, his price doesn’t entice.
The hope is that Long River (#8), another ‘A’ play, can light up the board with a victory at a fat price. He has run quickly this year in two-turn routes, and his fifth in the Charles Town Classic, when beaten five lengths, was deceptively good. He was moved prematurely to engage the leader and eventual second-place finisher, Game On Dude, and held well until late.
Three others go down as ‘B’ plays: Moonshine Mullin (#3), Will Take Charge (#4), and Departing (#6).
Regret (race 9): Personal Diary (#5) is still eligible for a first-level allowance, but she’s as fast, or nearly as fast, as the leading contenders in the Regret, a 1 1/8-mile turf race. She comes off a pair of 82 Beyer Speed Figures, just below the top figures of A Little Bit Sassy (#4) and just above those of Istanford (#7).
All three fillies are ‘A’ plays.
Beyond figures, Personal Diary further has shown the ability to stay 1 1/8 miles and has run well on the Churchill grass course.
The tickets: Plugging the horses above into Ticketmaker with a 50-cent minimum wager and a budget of $117, combinations of all ‘A’s are recommended plays at $1.50 each; all ‘A’s and one ‘B’ at $1; and two ‘A’s and two ‘B’s at 50 cents apiece.
