King: Oaklawn Park early pick four play for Saturday, March 16, 2019

Seeing the potential for a couple of overbet favorites in the opening races at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, the early pick four there offers wagering appeal. Below is my race-by-race-analysis, with recommended horses listed by their program numbers and ranked as either A or B runners to emphasize play with DRF’s Ticketmaker wagering tool.

Race 1

Breaking News (1, A), twice on the board in as many starts, is an obvious contender, but in part due to high-profile jockey Joel Rosario taking the mount, bettors can anticipate him dropping from his 7-2 morning line. He is a must-use, but at odds estimated to fall to 5-2 or shorter, probably an underlay.

Preferred from a value perspective and ranking as the top selection is My Legacy (2, A), who seems a candidate to improve after showing speed before fading to fourth in his debut at Fair Grounds on Feb. 9. Take note that third-place finisher Chess Chief returned to win.

Not as fancied but still worthy of inclusion in the pick four is Battleofthebulge (7, B), who is training swiftly and should benefit moving from a route to a sprint after running off and fading in his latest.

Race 2

With the second race being at 1 1/2 miles, a distance few of these have attempted, spreading more than in the opener seems a worthwhile practice.

Tonedaddy (10, A) and Kela Brew (3, A) are the first and second selections, respectively, while Tales of War (6, B) and favored Yeowzer (9, B) land roles as back-up plays. Of these four horses, Tonedaddy rates on top, going second off the claim by successful claiming owner Maggi Moss, and having a staying pedigree. He is by Curlin and out of a Summer Squall mare.

Race 3

Cowboy Diplomacy (9, A), second in his debut, is probable to take heavy action exiting a race in which victorious Captain Von Trapp came back to repeat, and having a much-publicized pedigree as a full brother to champion Monomoy Girl. Must use him, but the price is going to be short.

Plug and Play (3, A) is the value-based choice due to the possibility of a greater return. 4-1 on the line and probable to drift up, he is bred for the stretch-out to a route, being by Curlin out of a Danehill mare.

Race 4

A stakes-quality allowance for 3-year-olds then concludes the opening pick four sequence in the fourth race, where Dessman (5, A) is the selection, followed by Comedian (4, B) and Last Judgment (7, B). Dessman impressed in just missing when second in the San Vicente, showing heart to push first-place Sparky Ville to the limit.

The Tickets

Inserting the above-mentioned horses into TicketMaker, for $54, an all ‘A’ ticket can be played for $1.50, any combination of three ‘A’ horses and a ‘B’ for $1, and two ‘A’ horses and two ‘B’ runners for $0.50.