King: Materiality ran into bad luck in Derby

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Some thoughts that popped into my brain while I sat in traffic as 170,000 fans inched along in their cars leaving Churchill Downs after Saturday’s Kentucky Derby:

** What I muttered after the Derby break, when Materiality, on whom I wagered, started terribly: “Ugh,” along with some words from George Carlin’s famous stand-up routine of things you can’t say on television. Then I sprinkled in a few more as I watched him climb while eating dirt behind horses passing the stands the first time.

Did Materiality’s inexperience beat him in the Derby? One could make that case, but I think we also have to consider that perhaps he simply had bad racing luck. I’ve seen seasoned horses break slowly plenty of times, too. Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern, for example, didn’t break cleanly in the Churchill Downs Stakes, which along with a long layoff, contributed to him being unplaced.

That is not to say I am convinced Materiality would have won the Derby if he had broken sharply and gotten a forward position. Sometimes a bad trip merely means just that – not that a horse was necessarily superior to those that finished in front of him. So due credit goes to the victorious American Pharoah and the runner-up Firing Line for their outstanding races.

Still, if one had to pick a horse that is better than his Derby finish, it would be Materiality, who ran sixth.

** Is there a more talented trainer of 3-year-old fillies in the country than Larry Jones? If so, the name escapes me. The only thing that surprised me about the Kentucky Oaks this year is that Jones-trained fillies didn’t run one-two, with I’m a Chatterbox running third behind Lovely Maria and Shook Up.

I’m a Chatterbox, by the way, broke poorly in the Kentucky Oaks. I’m sure if she were unraced at 2, some would blame her start on that.

** Why do Fair Grounds fillies consistently run so well year after year in the Kentucky Oaks? I’ve heard the United States Graded Stakes Committee would like to know. They’re finding it hard to believe a Grade 1-caliber filly can come from there.

As consistently good as the 3-year-old fillies that winter in Louisiana prove to be, so, too, are the 3-year-old colts from California. The top three finishers in this year’s Derby were based in Southern California, even though American Pharoah shipped to Oaklawn to prep twice this spring. Last year’s top 3-year-olds, California Chrome, Shared Belief, and Bayern, also were based out West.

Part of the reason for the 3-year-old success of California colts can be attributed to trainer Bob Baffert. He now has won four Kentucky Derbies, a remarkable achievement, and as the saying goes, success begets success. What he has done by winning the Derby and other prestigious races has understandably resulted in him landing many of the best young horses to train year after year. Then he makes the most of their talent.

** Derby afternoon was a crazy day for those who make speed figures. No doubt the track was not playing as quickly later on Derby Day as during the early portion of it, but distinguishing when it specifically changed or if it was a gradual process is pure speculation.

Though I believe analyzing speed figures is an important consideration in handicapping, due to the changing track speed that affected times at Churchill on Derby Day, my preference is to rely on visual observations more than figures in analyzing these runners when they return.

** As unique and magical as Derby Day is, it ranks behind the Breeders’ Cup and Oaks Day for me. I realize that sounds like sacrilege from a Louisville native, but the Breeders’ Cup is more about racing than a party, hence my preference for it. For most who attend the Derby – and to a somewhat lesser extent the Oaks – it is the other way around.

And 170,000 people? As pleased as that makes me to see racing’s biggest day supported, it is just too large a crowd and leads to people getting surly. There were even punches reportedly thrown by two members of the media as they boarded a late-arriving parking shuttle Saturday night. Maybe they bet Materiality, too.