King: Looking to pad Derby bankroll in supporting stakes

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – With so much attention on the Kentucky Derby, it is easy to lose sight of the compelling supporting stakes at Churchill Downs next week, which can leave bettors’ pocketbooks flush or empty long before the big race.

Fourteen supporting stakes are lined up at Churchill Downs from Thursday through Saturday before the Derby, and the probable fields already have led me to formulate opinions and early betting strategy. That includes next Friday’s Kentucky Oaks, where I like Santa Anita Oaks winner Midnight Bisou to win a compelling matchup against Ashland Stakes winner Monomoy Girl.

Although I hold Monomoy Girl in high regard, I don’t think she has as much upside at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Oaks as Midnight Bisou, who seems to get better the longer she goes. And the expected presence of a number of front-running types in the Oaks figures to ensure a lively pace that could aid the late-running Midnight Bisou.

Monomoy Girl, expected to be the favorite, has the advantage of being a winner at Churchill and not having to ship in as Midnight Bisou does from California, but I don’t see any reason why Midnight Bisou shouldn’t like the Churchill track given that the stretch, at approximately a quarter-mile, gives her more of an opportunity to close the gap on the leaders than she’s had in the past.

Her two losses, both coming by a nose, came when she couldn’t quite catch the now-sidelined Dream Tree over more speed-favoring tracks at Santa Anita and Del Mar. Midnight Bisou has rattled off three consecutive graded stakes victories since those two losses, all coming in dominant fashion despite her seemingly coasting a bit after catching the leaders so quickly that she was in front in midstretch.

Outside the top two in the Oaks, the prices are appealing – the form, not so much. They haven’t displayed the same consistency as the leading duo, and many appear suspect in terms of the company they’ve defeated or in their apparent ability to stay the distance.

The fillies in the Oaks are not the only stars of next Friday’s show. Also running are 2017 Derby winner Always Dreaming in the Grade 2 Alysheba and 2017 Kentucky Oaks winner Abel Tasman in the La Troienne.

I plan to wager against both, reasoning that the public will overbet them on the return to Churchill Downs. They’re contenders, obviously, being classy, accomplished horses, but I’ve never been a sentimental gambler who bets on victories he wants to see rather than expects to see, and I don’t plan to start now.

Always Dreaming had a forgettable 3-year-old campaign after the Derby, and his comeback when second in the Gulfstream Park Mile on March 31 was steady but unspectacular. And that came at Gulfstream, where he had won the Florida Derby in 2017 and where Todd Pletcher’s horses usually are geared up for their returns.

As for Abel Tasman, she has been away since a runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff on Nov. 3. And in watching her April 21 work at Santa Anita on Xbtv.com, I didn’t get the impression she is fully on top of her game for her return. Working in company with the Oaks-bound Rayya, she was slow to get into gear and only caught her younger rival late when driven and slapped on the shoulder with the whip.

I prefer the streaking Martini Glass over Abel Tasman. A former claimer, she enters having won two consecutive graded stakes and figures to be fresh and fit after winning the Azeri at Oaklawn Park last out March 17.

The La Troienne is the obvious goal for Martini Glass, who will be seeking her first Grade 1 win. But for Abel Tasman, it seems like a starting point ahead of even bigger events down the road.

Similarly, Beach Patrol isn’t a sure thing for the same reason in his seasonal debut in next Saturday’s Grade 1 Old Forester Turf Classic, the race that immediately precedes the Derby. The best long-distance turf horse in America in 2017, he is cutting back to 1 1/8 miles, and I would suspect that trainer Chad Brown is eyeing other prizes in the year more so than this race.

I’m interested in another potential Brown starter: Kurilov, the runner-up in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf behind Heart to Heart, who set an easy pace and held him off. The form of that race has held up smartly, with Heart to Heart returning to take the Grade 1 Maker’s 46 Mile and third-place finisher Hi Happy romping in the Grade 2 Pan American.