King: Look outside of Saturday's high-profile stakes for value plays

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Along with just about every other avid horseplayer, I will be focused on the major races on television Saturday, watching the Dubai World Cup and later the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby.

It is my bankroll that will be focused elsewhere, hoping to catch a few overlays on less-prominent races. The strategy is basic: Bet the races I like, and watch those that hold interest but don’t appear to offer a horse with wagering appeal.

Three stakes in particular hit my handicapping radar this week. They follow below, in post-time order.

Ulanbator could move forward

Up first is the fifth race at Gulfstream Park, the Grade 3 Skip Away, at 1:50 p.m. Eastern. There, I anticipate Ulanbator slipping through the wagering cracks and starting at odds of 5-1 or higher.

That is value on a horse who already beat Skip Away rival Commissioner, albeit in a comeback race for the latter, and with a key distance change from a mile to 1 3/16 miles.

Last time, going just one turn in the one-mile, Grade 3 Fred Hooper on Feb. 7, he lacked the speed to keep up and couldn’t put in any type of significant rally, passing only tired horses and finishing seventh.

Even so, he ran a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, nearly matching a career high of 97 that he had run in his previous race when beating Commissioner in an optional claimer Jan. 10. Figure disciples call that “pairing” – a pattern that often signals the potential for a similar effort, if not a move forward.

Having seven weeks of rest since his last start should further benefit this horse, who seems to run most effectively when given time between starts.

Though beating Commissioner, Encryption, and East Hall won’t be easy in the Skip Away, the circumstances look favorable for Ulanbator when taking into account a rewarding price in a short field.

Confrontation a good price play

A few races later in the Sir Shackleton, a seven-furlong dirt race that goes off at 3:21 p.m., Confrontation is the play. Also coming out of the Fred Hooper, a race in which he was a close fourth, he owns quality Beyers and appears to have the class to prove a force.

He is not the most likely winner of this race – Fred Hooper winner Valid is – but the latter will be a skimpy price, taking action on a cutback in distance and with leading rider Javier Castellano climbing aboard.

Confrontation won’t take action on the jockey-change angle, with cold-riding Joe Bravo replacing Rajiv Maragh, who is in Dubai on Saturday.

But Bravo has gotten run out of Confrontation before, riding him to runner-up finishes to Salutos Amigos in the Bold Ruler last fall and behind Lea in the Hal’s Hope in January.

Throw in a couple of good speed figures over the Gulfstream Park strip at this meet, and being rested since Feb. 7, and he looks ready for a top effort.

Whether that is good enough to beat Valid and a classy Pants On Fire is debatable, but those with faith will be rewarded with fair odds.

Coalport looms from outside

Turning to Fair Grounds in New Orleans, at 3:55 p.m. Central, Coalport looms an intriguing prospect in the Mervin H. Muniz Jr., a 1 1/8-mile turf race.

Blessed with tactical speed, he nearly always enjoys a favorable trip, either setting the pace or sitting just off the leader. And drawn outside with a long run to the first turn, jockey Miguel Mena should be able to settle him into a comfortable pace, either on the lead or just off Chocolate Ride, the only other speed horse in the race.

Although Coalport hasn’t kept the company of Gulfstream invader Slumber, he has something I love to see in his past performances: a lot of victories. He is 9 for 19 on grass and likely would be 10 for 19 if he had not drifted out in a race at Louisiana Downs last year, causing him to be disqualified. He also loves a fight, as noted by how many times he has prevailed in photo finishes.

Certainly, the Muniz is the toughest test he has faced – now racing against the likes of Slumber and Divine Oath, a three-time graded stakes winner – but given his current form and winning ways, he might prove up to the challenge.