King: As lone speed in short field, Lull enticing in Wild Applause Stakes
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Usually, a battle-tested, lone-speed horse proves the darling of the betting public. But exceptions occasionally arise, usually when such a horse is matched against another type of runner whom the public adores even more: a hyped horse.
That is the scenario in Saturday’s Wild Applause Stakes at Belmont Park, where I see Lull, a stakes-winning filly of high quality, as the controlling speed of a paceless one-mile turf race. But she seems likely to go off as the second favorite to first-out winner Rubilinda, a Frankel filly who stylishly won her debut for trainer Chad Brown.
Although I respect Rubilinda and think she has a bright future, to these eyes, the betting in the race should be reversed, with Lull going favored since she holds tactical and experience edges.
Perhaps Rubilinda is a star in the making. It is possible, but there is no value in betting on that assumption. But there is value at 3-1 in a short field on second favorite Lull, the only filly in the race who has won on the lead.
So, I will take my chances that Lull can go wire to wire in the Wild Applause, and if Rubilinda runs her down, she will earn my respect.
Proforma a standout at Monmouth
Proforma looks like a rock-solid favorite in the Jersey Shore Stakes at Monmouth Park. A stakes-winning sprinter at Fair Grounds over the winter, he is well suited to the six-furlong distance of the Jersey Shore as well as the makeup of the race.
There is speed to set up his stalking rally, and making his second start following a five-month layoff, he has every right to improve upon his fifth-place finish in the Chick Lang Stakes at Pimlico on May 20. And in truth, he doesn’t have to improve a whole lot off that race, even though he was fifth.
Proforma was away a bit poorly in that race, and even if he had broken with the field, he would have faced the difficult task of beating the victorious Recruiting Ready, one of the top six-furlong horses in the country.
Throw in that Proforma has a sharp trainer in Mike Stidham, and with his rider, “Jersey” Joe Bravo back riding in top form at Monmouth after a quiet winter in Florida, and all the signals are positive.
Now let’s hope he sticks close to his 2-1 morning line – a more-than-fair price in light of the factors in his favor.
First-timer attractive at Woodbine
Lastly, I’m aiming for a price in the My Dear Stakes at Woodbine, where none of the horses who have run has particularly caught my fancy. So, I’m going with a first-time starter in this five-furlong dash for 2-year-old fillies in Gossip Isle, an 8-1 outsider on the morning line.
The confidence her winning barn shows by unveiling her in a stakes race is encouraging, as is the fact that she sold for $90,000 at auction last year at Keeneland – well above the $33,706 average for the 13 yearling fillies by Algorithms who were sold in 2016. The high price tag suggests that she is a good physical specimen.
Progeny of Algorithms also tend to be speedy and precocious. Last year, the aforementioned Recruiting Ready won at first asking and ran second immediately afterward to eventual 2-year-old male champion Classic Empire in the Bashford Manor, and this year, another juvenile colt by Algorithms, He Hate Me, is off to a fast start by winning both of his races, including the Tremont Stakes at Belmont on June 9.
Gossip Isle’s works have been moderate for the most part, but there is one breeze that jumps off the page, a half-mile in 48.20 seconds over the Tapeta surface at Woodbine on June 5. That quick drill suggests that there is potential with this filly.
Clearly, Gossip Isle is disadvantaged by not having raced, but as a result, those with faith in her promise will be rewarded with square odds.
