King: Live longshot Synchrony a must-use in all-stakes pick four

Bettors who like playing gimmicks can often be placed in quandaries. Maybe they want to play a multirace wager, only to find some dreadful race cluttering the sequence. Or maybe a wager is appealing from a handicapping perspective, except the high takeout almost classifies as price gouging.

There are no such issues in the late pick four that begins on race 7 at Keeneland on Saturday. All four races in the sequence are stakes, and the takeout is a favorable 19 percent, per the Horseplayers Association of North America. (The takeout for that wager at most tracks is in the 20 percent to 25 percent range.)

So, let’s get down to handicapping and try to hit this thing. What follows is an analysis of the four stakes, with horses and program numbers classified as either “A” or “B” runners, based on their chances of winning. Then, at the bottom, I’ve inserted them into DRF’s TicketMaker software to compile tickets to best optimize the combinations.

Race 7: Up first is the Ben Ali, a 1 1/8-mile Grade 3 in which I like Eagle (6), who was third as the favorite in the New Orleans Handicap in his last start. He is a consistent runner and happens to be 2 for 2 at Keeneland, making him an “A” horse for TicketMaker purposes.

I will try one other “A” horse in the race in General a Rod (9), who is faster than Eagle when at his best. The problem is that it is very hard to predict when his best is forthcoming. This is a horse who can beat almost anyone and lose to almost anyone.

General a Rod ran dismally in the Santa Anita Handicap last out when ninth, but I’m willing to give him a pass for that failure, given that he was shipping to an unfamiliar track. He won at Keeneland earlier in his career and recorded a work at Keeneland on April 8, so the track surface is not an excuse Saturday.

The others I don’t see as good enough to win unless the top two simply have off days.

Race 8: Female turf sprinters are up next in the Giant’s Causeway, and since Lady Shipman isn’t in here, having raced last month in Dubai, the race is competitive.

I like two “A” horses and a “B.” The two “A” runners are Jewel of a Cat (6), an honest mare with 15 top-three finishes from 21 turf starts, and the streaking Miss Matzoball (5), a winner of two straight, including a stakes at Gulfstream on March 12 in which she defeated Jewel of the Cat by two lengths.

To a lesser extent I like Miss Ella (7) – a backup “B” play. She showed her quality last year with a couple of stakes wins, but it was a loss when second to Lady Shipman in her lone turf start in a stakes race at Saratoga that was arguably her best race of the year.

Miss Ella is not an “A” due to not having raced since a 10th-place finish in the Grade 2 Raven Run last Oct. 17. That inactivity could put her at a disadvantage.

Race 9: The Grade 3 Lexington looks like a competitive race in which I plan to use three “A” horses.

I’m intrigued by the longshot Synchrony (5), who has move-up potential while coming back to a track where he won a maiden race last year, and I also respect Collected (10), a two-time stakes winner for trainer Bob Baffert, and the comebacking Swipe (4), unraced since closing out 2015 with four runner-up finishes to the champion Nyquist.

I would love to see Synchrony pull off the upset, knowing he offers blow-up potential in the pick four.

Race 10: Time to single, using the obvious one, Tepin (8). She is the best turf female in North America and has shown an affinity for racing on the Keeneland turf course. She won the First Lady and Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland last year, though both races came on wet turf, and the course should be dry Saturday.

Nevertheless, she has no trouble with a firm course, as she displayed in winning two graded stakes at Tampa over the winter.

Granted, Dacita beat her on firm ground at Saratoga last summer, but Tepin has flourished since then, while Dacita has largely underachieved.

The tickets: Plugging the above-mentioned horses into TicketMaker, for $15, an all “A” ticket can be played for $1, and a ticket of three “A” horses and a “B” for the minimum of 50 cents.