King: Link California Chrome with some longshots
Perhaps you are a “Chromie,” one of California Chrome’s diehard fans, or maybe you just want to bet on Triple Crown history being made if California Chrome wins the Belmont Stakes. Whether it is either of those reasons or another, you just can’t bring yourself to bet against California Chrome in the Belmont, even knowing that he is 3-5 odds on the morning line.
To be clear, I don’t recommend this “in any price” wagering strategy. (I will be backing Wicked Strong and to a lesser extent Tonalist as value-priced alternates to California Chrome.) But I can understand the sentiment as one who admires California Chrome.
So for you sentimental sorts, those that are backing California Chrome no matter what, this column is for you. It seeks to find the best strategy for betting the race, provided one is in California Chrome’s camp, no matter his odds.
For those wanting a decent payoff, it means taking a shot in the exotics, pools in which California Chrome may offer a smidge more value, as the legions of souvenir seekers will largely be backing him in the win pool instead.
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Beyond that advice, Chromies wanting a somewhat of rewarding return in the exotics will probably want to avoid the most obvious tickets, those with California Chrome on top of Wicked Strong and Tonalist, the second- and third-favorites on the morning line. An exacta to them, or a trifecta or superfecta keying them beneath California Chrome will be among the most heavily played gimmick bets in the Belmont.
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Those looking for a richer payoff will want to look for value beneath California Chrome and find some horse who is at least 15-1 to potentially light up the exotics. And if that’s the criteria, General a Rod, at 20-1 on the line, and Commanding Curve at 15-1 are among the better ones for California Chrome backers to use.
General a Rod comes off a pair of troubled trips in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and could jump forward with a clean run in the Belmont, and Commanding Curve was finishing best in the Derby when second, and seems a horse well suited to the 1 ½ miles of the Belmont.
Ride on Curlin at 12-1 doesn’t quite fall in the 15-1 category, unless he drifts up from his morning line, but he, too, has the potential to crash the exotics. He was the only horse to come close to California Chrome in the Preakness and he was steadied on the far turn of the Kentucky Derby or he would have finished closer than seventh.