King: Lightly raced Telekinesis has edge in Lexington Stakes

The promise Telekinesis displayed this winter at Fair Grounds makes him a leading contender in Saturday’s Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland, and strikes against two of his principal rivals add to his wagering appeal.

The 5-2 morning-line favorite My Boy Jack landed on the outside in post 12, putting him at risk of a wide trip or getting shuffled back as his rider seeks to tuck him in to avoid ground loss. And Greyvitos, another leading prospect, seems disadvantaged by not having raced since winning the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on Dec. 17, after which he had surgery for a knee chip.

Telekinesis doesn’t face such hurdles. He drew perfectly in post 2, just outside of one-dimensional front-runner Battle At Sea, leaving him well situated to work out a stalking trip in a race that figures to have a fast pace. And he is fit, having made a start in each of the past two months at Fair Grounds in preparation for the Lexington, a race his owner, Stonestreet Farm, is sponsoring.

What he lacks is experience, having made just two starts, but I’m hopeful that his last race, a third March 9 against older horses in a first-level allowance, provided him with the foundation to move forward. That race was his first route, and he likely learned something in being a bit aggressive, dueling with another front-runner, and fading to third, beaten 1 3/4 lengths.

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Even in defeat, he ran the third-highest last-race Beyer Speed Figure in this field, trailing only My Boy Jack and Greyvitos. And even without that pair’s disadvantages here, Telekinesis would appear to be the most likely to improve Saturday.

He also has the pedigree to like an off track if rain hits the Lexington area, as expected as of Thursday. His 435 wet-track Tomlinson rating, which quantifies perceived success rates on off tracks based on stallions in a horse’s pedigree, is the highest in the field.

Telekinesis does not have a win in the mud – unlike My Boy Jack, who won Oaklawn’s Southwest under a perfect rail-skimming ride – but he will be a better price for not having any wet-track experience. He sits at 4-1 on the morning line.

City of Light can go long

Shifting to the older-horse division, I’m taking another inexperienced horse in a major stakes race Saturday: City of Light in the Oaklawn Handicap.

Having raced exclusively in sprints over his six-race career, he is likely to be viewed with some skepticism while facing Santa Anita Handicap winner Accelerate in the 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn Handicap. But I am not viewing the stretchout with apprehension.

This horse has a long stride, and though naturally speedy, he is by no means speed-crazy. He relaxed while racing up close for jockey Drayden Van Dyke in winning both the Grade 1 Malibu and Grade 1 Triple Bend going seven-eighths. He lay just off the pace in the latter race, which bodes well for his prospects of stretching out.

More than those visual observations, it is nice to see trainer Mike McCarthy wanting to stretch him out, when alternative races such as the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day could have been conservatively chosen.

Although I respect Accelerate and others in the lineup, I’m not convinced that Accelerate is quite the standout that his Big Cap victory makes him appear. He won over a wet track, and the conditions seemed to stretch out the fields that day, a recipe for inflated speed figures. Accelerate matched a career-best 110 Beyer that afternoon.

Smart Spree in Count Fleet

Smart Spree, who runs in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap at Oaklawn, is a much-improved former claimer. This kind of horse can be underestimated by bettors, who view them by what they were, not by what they have become.

Smart Spree has become quite good. He rattled off three consecutive victories this winter at Oaklawn, admittedly against fields far easier than what he faces in the Count Fleet, a race headlined by the millionaire Whitmore.

On the other hand, this horse didn’t win those races by inches, so perhaps he can handle the raise. As the probable second or third choice in the wagering, it seems like a gamble worth taking to see how high he can climb.