King: Lessons from a so-far humbling Keeneland meet

“This game will humble kings,” Hall of Famer Nick Zito is fond of saying, and some racetracks reinforce that notion regularly, whether one trains horses as Zito does, or handicaps and wagers on them. This fall’s Keeneland meet has been that way for this handicapper, with winners being in short supply.

At roughly the midway point in the Keeneland meet, aiming to finish stronger, I went sifting through the Keeneland results looking for trends and statistics for use down the stretch. Those findings are below.

◗ Speed has been potent, with the half-mile leader winning 20 of 60 dirt races heading into Thursday’s card. Add horses within a photo of the lead at the half-mile stage, and the numbers swell, making such speed types 29 for 60.

This bears close attention going forward, not only at Keeneland but also at Churchill, where many of these winners will subsequently race. Some of the successful speed types at Keeneland might find it more challenging to last on the lead there.

◗ After a quiet fall in 2017, Saratoga horses have rebounded this month at Keeneland, with 16 fall meet winners making their prior starts at the New York track, Only the pool of horses from Churchill has more winners, though they represented the largest sample size.

Horses from Churchill have been among the largest upsetters at the meet – odd, since they largely represent the horses established on the Kentucky circuit. Five such runners have scored at odds of 15-1 or higher, including Fun Paddy, a 54-1 surprise in a maiden race Oct. 5 on the Keeneland turf.

◗ Speaking of winning longshots, there have been many of those at the meet. Of 86 races contested through Wednesday, 15 winners were horses that started at odds of 12-1 or higher. Besides Fun Paddy, others who paid big bucks include Small Town Hero, who returned $106 in winning a claimer Oct. 10 at Keeneland, and Knicks Go, who paid a meet-high $142 in taking the Breeders’ Futurity on the front end Oct. 6.

◗ Knicks Go is one of five winners from Arlington to have won on the Keeneland main track this fall. Shifting from either turf or Polytrack to race on dirt, not a single one was favored – though Bell’s the One, who rolled to a comfortable victory in the seventh race Wednesday at Keeneland, was a close second choice at 5-2.

◗ Meanwhile, just two horses have won at Keeneland this meet after last racing at Indiana Downs. That tally should pick up over the meet’s final stretch when the quality of racing at Keeneland moderates after all the stakes in the beginning.

Plenty of angles in overflowing Raven Run

Not to be lost, looking either backward or too far ahead at Keeneland, is Saturday’s Raven Run, a Grade 2 that drew an overflow field and is a race in which Moonshine Memories is the morning-line favorite.

Although Moonshine Memories figures to be a major factor, my preference is for second-favorite Alter Moon, who just finished fourth in the Grade 1 Test, the premier summer sprint for 3-year-old fillies. Before that, she had won a couple of races in fast times at Gulfstream Park, performances that inspired her current connections to pay $675,000 for her at the Fasig-Tipton horses of racing age sale in July. A versatile type who can win on the lead or press the pace, she figures to be up close early over a Keeneland track that, as noted, has played kind to speed.

Moonshine Memories also figures to be prominent early, certainly more so than she was when having a difficult trip in rallying from eighth to be third in the Grade 2 Prioress last out. She is a filly whose general style appears very similar to that of Alter Moon. A dual Grade 1 winner last year at 2, she has not experienced the same success this year at 3, winning only an allowance at Del Mar in four starts, though she seems to be cycling back into top form.

It is the rail-drawn Amy’s Challenge who will likely be the one to catch. Too headstrong to be effective in routes earlier in the year, she is unquestionably talented, as she showed in winning the first three races of her career, all sprints. One of those victories came over Minnesota standout Mr. Jagermeister, and another over Mia Mischief, who has developed into one of the top 3-year-old fillies in the country.