King: On Leave offers best value among QE II contenders

Examine the last-race replays of Catch a Glimpse, Time and Motion, and On Leave for Saturday’s Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland, and something sticks out: All three had perfect trips.

Catch a Glimpse raced uncontested on the lead in the Aug. 21 Lake Placid at Saratoga and was run down late by Time and Motion, who had stalked the pace inside before angling out for the stretch, hardly losing any ground. On Leave just won the Sept. 17 Sands Point at Belmont Park by cruising to the lead in a race void of pace.

Unfortunately, the alternatives to these runners in the QE II fail to inspire this horseplayer, so I will back the filly I believe can get another good trip and still be a decent price: On Leave.

Although she won on the lead last out, On Leave is as comfortable stalking the pace, and that’s the trip I suspect she will experience Saturday. Drawn inside Catch a Glimpse, seemingly the lone speed, On Leave should be able to follow her and save ground, hopefully getting the kind of run Time and Motion received when she caught Catch a Glimpse in the Lake Placid.

Still, her task is difficult. Catch a Glimpse has been beaten only once in nine starts on turf and should be in command early, and Time and Motion seems to be getting better with every start.

If On Leave can stay close to her 5-1 morning line, that would represent a fair price on a filly who is perfect in four starts this year since adding Lasix.

Keeneland trends

While on the subject of Keeneland, here are some key statistics through Wednesday:

◗ With four completed cards in the books, Julien Leparoux (6 for 24) and Florent Geroux (4 for 20) top the standings. Following them are New York riders Luis Saez and Jose Ortiz with three wins apiece.

◗ Three of Geroux’s four victories have come on turf (from eight rides), with no other rider having more than a single turf win.

◗ Robby Albarado, Corey Lanerie, and Brian Hernandez Jr. – the three leading riders from the recently concluded Churchill meet – are 2 for 32, 2 for 25, and 0 for 18 at Keeneland. They have a prime chance to heat up Sunday with Leparoux and Geroux riding at Woodbine.

◗ Mark Casse, Todd Pletcher, and Graham Motion are the only trainers with three or more victories, with Casse going 5 for 15, Pletcher 4 for 10, and Motion 3 for 6. Casse has collected three graded stakes wins, and Motion has two.

◗ Pletcher’s horse Photo Call owns the top Beyer Speed Figure of the meet, a 109 for winning the First Lady, and is followed by Motion’s horse Miss Temple City, who earned a 106 for beating the boys in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Among dirt horses, A. P. Indian and Limousine Liberal share the top figure, a 104 for finishing a nose apart in the Grade 2 Phoenix.

I’m a Chatterbox posted the highest dirt figure by a female in winning the Grade 1 Spinster with a 100 Beyer.

◗ Casse-trained runners have the three highest Beyers at the meet by 2-year-olds, with Breeders’ Futurity winner Classic Empire running an 88, Speedmeister running an 86 in a maiden victory, and La Coronel receiving an 86 in winning the Jessamine.

◗ The Grade 1 Alcibiades was notably slow, won by Dancing Rags with a 73 Beyer.

◗ Racing close to the pace has been an advantage in sprints, though of little importance in routes, albeit from a limited sample. Through Wednesday, 4 of 18 sprint winners had raced on the lead or within a head of the pace after a quarter-mile, while front-runners were 0 for 9 in routes. Interestingly, 13 of the 18 sprint winners on dirt – 72 percent – were within two lengths of the pacesetter. The first two races Thursday – both dirt sprints – were won by the early leader.

◗ Racing up close on grass has been beneficial, with two winners leading throughout from nine routes, and with no one successfully rallying from more than 4 1/2 lengths back after a half-mile.