King: Lately, path to Kentucky Oaks has run through New Orleans

Although the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star at Fair Grounds is the headline race across the country on Saturday, history suggests it is the 3-year-old fillies exiting the race that precedes it, the Rachel Alexandra, who are most likely to vault into national prominence.

Unlike their male counterparts from Fair Grounds, who have largely been outrun in the Kentucky Derby, 3-year-old fillies coming out of the Rachel Alexandra and, later, the Fair Grounds Oaks, have excelled in Louisville in the Kentucky Oaks.

Three of the past five Kentucky Oaks winners had raced in the Rachel Alexandra. Champions Monomoy Girl and Untapable won both races in 2018 and 2014, while Lovely Maria took the 2015 Kentucky Oaks a couple of starts after a runner-up finish to stablemate I’m a Chatterbox in the Rachel Alexandra.

For this reason, I’m eager to see Saturday’s renewal, which drew a field worthy of its Grade 2 status, even with Starlet winner Chasing Yesterday set to be scratched, not having shipped in from California. What is left is still a fine field – not as deep as the overflow Risen Star but still featuring seven stakes winners among the remaining nine fillies, including three Grade 2 winners and a Grade 3 winner.

Positive Spirit most piques my wagering interest, largely on the basis of her final start of 2018, when she went to Aqueduct and rolled by 10 1/2 lengths in the Demoiselle. Though she beat what seemed a mediocre group of fillies for a Grade 2 race, she did so with authority. She put herself into the race with her natural speed, relaxed under a hold from Manny Franco to press three wide around both turns, and then left her foes far behind once given her cue.

She ran slowly, 1 1/8 miles in 1:56.01, though that time came on a tiring surface. She earned an 86 Beyer Speed Figure, fitting given the usual figures of the fillies who were well behind her.

A larger concern to me would be that she could regress back to her form prior to the Demoiselle, when she took three starts to win her maiden. Her maiden win came at Churchill against Shacklette, a filly who would need to dip to the maiden $50,000 claiming level this winter to win her first race in 11 starts.

I am hopeful that perhaps Positive Spirit just needed a few races to get to her Demoiselle level. She certainly has the pedigree to be very good, being a half-sister to 2017 Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming.

Alas, horseplayers can forget about catching her at her 5-1 morning line for the Rachel Alexandra. The scratch of Chasing Yesterday, the 5-2 favorite, means lower odds for the remaining entrants. Something closer to 3-1 seems probable.

Ranking next in line behind Positive Spirit is Serengeti Empress, who scored blowout victories in the Ellis Park Juvenile Fillies and Pocahontas last year but ended 2018 by running seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

She was outsprinted by the victorious Jaywalk and landed in tight quarters into the first turn, and jockey Corey Lanerie backed her out of the shuffle for early position. Seemingly disinterested thereafter, she backed out of contention, losing by 17 1/2 lengths.

On Saturday, she ought to be able to secure her preferred position on the lead. She owns the highest TimeformUS pace ratings and, being fresh and drawn inside fellow speed horse Liora, she can likely dictate terms under new rider James Graham.

More of a concern is her complete readiness after 3 1/2 months off. She has worked just three times leading up to the Rachel Alexandra, all since Jan. 27, while Positive Spirit, coming off a 2 1/2-month layoff, has had five works over the tiring Payson Park strip dating to Jan. 12.

One filly who could slip past the public is Oxy Lady, maybe starting around 5-1 odds. Much improved with blinkers added last fall, she won the Grade 3 Tempted at Aqueduct, and then her connections grew ultra-aggressive, shipping her across the country to run in the Grade 1 Starlet at Los Alamitos. Although she finished fourth, she proved her legitimacy by running just 2 3/4 lengths behind winner Chasing Yesterday.

Based at Fair Grounds since that race, she has been working quickly, recording a couple of bullets in six breezes this year.

This trio, plus Silverbulletday winner Needs Supervision, are the major players in the Rachel Alexandra, and if the race’s history is a fair indication, they will be vs. divisional leaders Jaywalk and Bellafina down the road in the Oaks.