King: Last-race loss makes this right time to bet on Running Mate

I admire perfection whether in horse racing or any other sport. I just don’t want to wager on perfection, knowing that people overbet the likelihood of its continuation.

So, when Running Mate raced in the Sugar Bowl Stakes on Dec. 17 at Fair Grounds after winning his first two starts, I went looking for alternatives to the 2-5 favorite and thankfully settled on the right horse in Proforma.

A month later, with Running Mate entered back in Saturday’s Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds, my view of him is significantly different. Now that Running Mate has lost, and with some backers likely to jump off his bandwagon, he holds more wagering appeal. Even with the expected scratch of Saint’s Fan, one of the favorites, Running Mate seems likely to start at odds of around 5-1 – an attractive price on a horse who I believe is the most probable winner.

Beyond the ease of Running Mate’s first two victories, which came by a combined 13 3/4 lengths, his loss in the Sugar Bowl did little to dissuade me of his talent. He showed speed and crossed the wire a clear-cut second to a promising horse in Proforma, although Running Mate was ultimately disqualified and placed third for racing greenly and interfering with another rival in the stretch.

Stretching out to a route for the first time in the Lecomte, Running Mate will be a tricky evaluation for many gamblers. But he doesn’t strike me as simply a sprinter. He’s a fast horse who began his career sprinting.

I’m fine with backing him on the stretch-out. I suspect Running Mate is fast enough to make the lead, and if he possesses the quality I think he does, then he just might outlast his rivals at an overlaid price.

Hawaakom worth a wager in Louisiana Stakes

Earlier Saturday at Fair Grounds – where the forecast calls for rain – I will back a horse with a late-closing style in the Louisiana Stakes: Hawaakom. Dropping out of the Grade 1 Clark Handicap, in which he was a troubled fifth, Hawaakom should appreciate facing lesser runners in this $75,000 stakes.

Although his form doesn’t jump out, Hawaakom had a highly successful 2016, winning more than $310,000 in 11 starts. Along the way, he won a $200,000 race and ran second in stakes to such notable horses as Stephen Foster Handicap winner Noble Bird and Scuba, the winner of the Marathon Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup card.

The Louisiana Stakes does appear to be void of speed – typically not what one wants to see when backing a late runner such as Hawaakom. But the good news is that Hawaakom doesn’t seem to be pace dependent. Two of his three victories last year came in routes in which the pacesetter got away with a six-furlong split slower than 1:13, and yet he was able to outkick those front-runners in the lane.

Not all late runners need a hot pace to be at their best. For those like Hawaakom who can quicken, a slow pace can leave the leaders within range to be caught, provided the horse can produce a fast three-furlong finish.

Field Trip the pick in Pasco

Not to be overlooked Saturday is the racing from Tampa Bay Downs, where three stakes are on the docket, kicked off by the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes for 3-year-olds that goes race 3. I like Field Trip, who dominated on the lead in the slop at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 10 in a Florida-bred maiden race.

That performance earned Field Trip an 80 Beyer Speed Figure, the top figure in Saturday’s field, though since it came in the slop against statebred opposition, there probably will be those who view it with skepticism. Not me. This horse busted out of the gate and ran away from a quick horse named Wait, a Distorted Humor colt who returned to lead throughout in rolling by 5 1/2 lengths against Florida-bred maidens at Gulfstream on Jan. 5.

Field Trip has also trained swiftly since, working a half-mile in 47.02 seconds at Gulfstream last Saturday, when his breeze was the fastest of 99.