King: Kentucky Derby analysis
1. Classic Empire
2. Irish War Cry
3. McCraken
4. Gunnevera
CLASSIC EMPIRE showed his class and talent in winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in fast time last year and then last month exhibited another skill in taking the Arkansas Derby – the ability to overcome adversity. Those traits make him the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby.
After incurring a variety of physical and mental setbacks after a third-place finish in his seasonal debut in the Holy Bull Stakes, he went into the Arkansas Derby as potentially a short horse and yet still won with a difficult trip. Steadied in the run to the first turn when the early leader cut him off, he fell farther off the pace than usual while racing in heavy traffic.
Despite having every right to quit, he didn’t, eventually getting angled to the outside in the stretch and surging down the center of the track to win by half a length and notch his third Grade 1 victory.
Now, in his third start of the year and with a training schedule that hasn’t missed a beat over the past few weeks, he looks ready for the kind of peak performance we witnessed in the BC Juvenile, the defining moment of his 2-year-old championship season.
IRISH WAR CRY appears formidable based on how quickly he has run in winning the Holy Bull and the Wood Memorial this year. Those fast wins make him the only horse in the Derby to have recorded two Beyers Speed Figures or 100 or greater.
Though unraced at Churchill, he has won over three different racetracks in his five-race career, indicating that he is not particular about the track surfaces on which he races, and has made a positive appearance in gallops at Churchill Downs this week after a sharp workout at Fair Hill before he departed for Kentucky.
MCCRAKEN has been flashy in his local breezes leading up to the Derby and, like Classic Empire, is a candidate to improve after likely needing his latest race, a third-place finish April 8 in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
Forced to miss the Tampa Bay Derby prior to that due to a minor ankle injury, he went into the Blue Grass a little short of preparation, and then an absence of pace resulted in him racing closer to the leaders than usual and eliminating his customary stretch punch. With a much hotter pace expected in the Derby, he should revert to late-running tactics over a Churchill track surface that he relishes.
Of the others, the deep closer GUNNEVERA is a logical candidate to use underneath in exotic wagers. He is a workmanlike type in the mornings but is among the most consistent colts in the Derby. He should be rolling in the lane.