King: Keeneland pick three for Sunday, Oct. 7, 2018

Seeing the potential for regression from the favorites, Eskimo Kisses and Blue Prize, in today's Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland, I am intrigued by 8-1 shot Champagne Problems. My view is that she warrants win and gimmicks play in addition to being used in the late pick three.

What follows is a short analysis of that closing sequence and a small pick-three play focused on Champagne Problems.

Race 8, Bourbon

Here, I will go three deep, using Henley's Joy (3), War of Will (1), and Current (10) in a race that lost Concrete Rose due to a scratch. All have the credentials to win, with Henley's Joy, unbeaten in two starts, likely offering the most value. He was a determined stakes winner at Kentucky Downs last month, and horses from there have fared well at Keeneland in the early stages of this meet.

Race 9, Spinster

Champagne Problems (8) and Blue Prize battled the length of the Churchill Downs stretch in last month's Locust Grove, with Blue Prize coming out on top by a nose. Despite their close finish, Champagne Problems could be somewhat overlooked in the Spinster, in part because she lacks experience at 1 1/8 miles. Her pedigree suggests it should be no issue, however.

As for Blue Prize, there is a chance she should could take a step back with the move from Churchill, her favorite surface. Eskimo Kisses similarly might not run as well as she did in her latest in winning the Alabama at Saratoga, a race in which she closed from the clouds in a hot-paced stakes.

Race 10, allowance

The last, a second-level turf allowance, drew a number of horses who seem closely matched in ability. So, spreading to some extent seems the way to go. Let's go with May Lilly (5), Stave (4), Excellent Sunset (3), and Psalmody (8). Of these, May Lilly is slightly preferred, having run second twice over her last three starts.

The tickets

Using the horses noted above who were listed with their program numbers, a 50-cent pick three of 1,3,10 with 8 with 3,4,5,8 costs $6.