King: Keeneland pick three play for Friday, Oct. 1
Although the big races of opening day at Keeneland come later Friday, large fields for the bulk of the day make the whole card quite playable. Here’s a pick three play to get things started a little earlier on the program, beginning with the third race.
RACE 3
RAAGHEB (1) hasn’t run in a while, but offers value and has the potential to win this race if cranked for his return. Although his barn isn’t known for layoff success, this one shows a steady works leading up to his return, and I get the impression he is ready to fire. Twice second in quality allowances at Churchill in the spring before a forgivable defeat when in the Grade 3 American Derby on turf, he is returned to his best surface on dirt and rates as an “A” play. GANGSTER (5) won a two-turn 1 1/8-mile race like this one at Saratoga over the summer in fast time before disappointing in a one-turn mile race at Belmont in which he faded to fifth without an excuse other than he ran against a better group than this. He may prove tough to catch, but looks like chalk, so he goes as a backup “B” runner. So, too, does, AWOPAHO (3), who won a maiden race at Ellis Park by two lengths this summer and then ran second in an allowance at Churchill, a race that didn’t seem particularly strong on paper but was run in fast time.
RACE 4
The strength of this race runs through CONQUEST WINDYCITY (3) and DONEGAL MOON (9), with the former preferred over the latter but with both being used as “A” plays with DRF’s TicketMaker tool. Conquest Windycity ran second first out on grass at Saratoga, a promising debut that encouraged his connections to try him as a maiden in the Grade 3 Iroquois, a race in which he went favored. He blew his chance at the break in the Iroquois, spotting the field a few lengths. He then made a big second-turn move before flattening out to fourth, though versus much better. Donegal Moon, meanwhile, was only beaten a couple lengths or so in each of his two starts at Saratoga this summer, first with a close sixth on dirt on his debut and then with a third in a turf route. He can likely run as well on dirt as on turf and now adds blinkers for trainer Todd Pletcher. For value sake, I will also try one “B,” an expensive, fast-working, well-bred first timer named GO GHETTO (6). He offers blow-up potential to the bet if he sticks to his 12-1 morning line and happens to win.
RACE 5
Closing out this pick three, let’s use two runners: PIN UP (5), who moved up first time on grass with a near-miss second at Monmouth, a race that earned her one of the top Beyer Speed Figures in the race, a 71; and late-running MISS MO KELLY (10), a filly that twice rallied to be second in three grass starts at Arlington this summer. The former is an “A,” the latter a “B.”
The TicketMaker ticket
Plugging the horses into TicketMaker with a $1 base and a budget of $27 creates an all “A” ticket for $3; two “A’s” and a “B” for $2; and an “A” and two “B’s” for a $1.
:: See Byron King’s pick three play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets