King: Keeneland pick six for Thursday, Oct. 20

With no one hitting the pick six at Keeneland on Wednesday, a hefty carryover of $329,321 sweetens the pot for the wager Thursday. Here is a race-by-race analysis of the wager, which begins on race 4 and can be played in $1 denominations:

Race 4

A six-furlong race for $25,000 claiming fillies, this is a challenging race to handicap, with most of the leading contenders having faults of one form or another. My value-based choice, Raise You L Up, can likely be forgiven for a couple of recent failures at Mountaineer, where she was ambitiously placed in a stakes race in one spot and raced on turf in another. Prior to those races, she won an optional-claiming race at Indiana Grand.

The sharpest mare is the speedy Samsonian, though she could regress with a change from a high-percentage stable to one that is 0 for its last 11 with newly claimed runners. Still, can’t toss her. Finally two more warrant interest: Angelis Score, a speedy runner who starts for winning connections, and Tipthetrolleygirl, a mare with back class who didn’t fire last out but is confidently kept at the same $25,000 claiming level by her connections.

Race 5

This is not a high-confidence race. Most of these maiden claimers seem to want to run on turf, not dirt, but grass isn’t an option for them at Keeneland, as the track does not card claiming races of any kind on the lawn. Spreading seems like the best strategy. I’d recommend going at least five deep, using, in order of preference: She's a Ten, Ten Seventy, Front Row Debbie, Diamonds for Leah, and Vouch For Kitten.

Race 6

Racing shifts to the grass next – or at least it’s scheduled to move to the grass, provided forecasted rain doesn’t force this race to the main track. Obviously, check for updates before wagering.

This is another race in which going five deep is recommended, with the following horses to these eyes warranting inclusion in the pick six: My Sweet Stella, Susie's Daddy, Unfading Beauty, Thirtydaysinjune, and English Dancer.

My Sweet Stella, who opened up a big lead and held on for second at Churchill on Sept. 22, seems like the most likely winner – but not by a large margin.

Race 7

Four horses stand above the rest in this first-level allowance route: Total Tap, Thirstforlife, Society Beau, and Holiday Bonus. Those with deep bankrolls may wish to use all four, but for those looking to save some bucks, Society Beau and Holiday Bonus might be hesitantly cut from the pick six simply due to the strength of Total Tap and Thirstforlife. The former was a good-looking winner at first asking on the grass and has the pedigree to make the transition to dirt, and the latter should appreciate racing in an allowance after running in stakes in three of his four starts.

Race 8

The five leading contenders in preferential order are Bigger Picture, Greengrassofyoming, Up With the Birds, Bullards Alley, and Renown. One of them should safely get a bettor through this leg, the Sycamore. A rain-soaked course would assist proven wet-course lovers Up With the Birds, Renown, and Bullards Alley.

On a firm course, it’s easy to like Bigger Picture, who should sit a favorable stalking trip and get a ground-saving trip from post 1.

Race 9

Last up is a maiden race for 3-year-olds and up in which Scarf it Down looks ready for a much-improved effort after a couple of forgivable losses. He owns the top Beyer Speed Figure, a 78 posted in his debut, and comes off a bullet move over the Churchill strip.

Quick-working first-timer Bethel Wildcat is also interesting, and to a lesser extent, so are Flight Crew, Muzzy On the Move, and Mighty Mad.