King: Keeneland pick four for Sunday, Oct. 4
The big races come later in the day Sunday at Keeneland, with the Bourbon and Spinster stakes, but it is the opening pick four that begins on Race 2 that has me most intrigued among the multirace wagers.
Race 2
Up first is a seven-furlong maiden claimer for a $50,000 tag, a race in which MACHO BREW (6) and MAGIC FIVE (3) are my preferred ‘A’ plays using DRF Ticketmaker. The former may slip past the betting public somewhat while making his first start on dirt. He drops out of a Kentucky Downs straight maiden race, and last fall, Kentucky Downs horses often outran their odds. MAGIC FIVE, meanwhile, ran a respectable fourth on grass at Churchill, returning to form after a dull race in his preceding start in April. Unlike the top choice, he is proven on dirt, though not sprinting.
I will back them up with one ‘B’ horse, POWERFUL TANK WAR (8), who kept up for a half mile first out at Kentucky Downs before tiring to 11th. He is eligible to improve and has trained swiftly, as he did prior to his debut.
Race 3
The likely winner and the lone ‘A’ horse is BAD STUDENT(3), who is stepped up off the claim for a barn that does well with claiming stock and has the back class to be a force on the rise. But with these being $10,000 claimers, the cheapest horses who race at Keeneland, they are not the most dependable lot. So, let’s spread a bit with some ‘B’ runners, most of whom should be fair prices. Those secondary runners include WHATTHECATDRUGIN (5), BILL OF RIGHTS (7), and SOUTHERN BLESSING (8).
Race 4
Provided this race stays on the grass, ASCEND (7) is a single. He has moved forward with each start, topped by a runner-up finish at Saratoga on Aug. 29 in which she was well clear of the third-place finisher.
Race 5
Let’s use two ‘A’ horses – MAL GUAPO (1) and O T B BOB (7), and one backup runner in KLISZ (4), a classy runner but a horse likely better on turf than dirt. MAL GUAPO just won his last by 13 lengths and is dangerous when he can control the pace, while O T B BOB just won comfortably in a $40,000 claimer at Churchill when returning to his best surface, dirt.
The Ticketmaker ticket
Plugging the horses into Ticketmaker with a 50-cent base and a budget of $28.50 creates an all-‘A’ ticket for $1.50, tickets with three ‘As’ and a ‘B’ for $1 apiece, and tickets with two ‘As’ and two ‘Bs’ for 50 cents each.
:: See Byron King's pick four play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets.