King: Jockeys' game of musical chairs offers clues to Derby preps

There is much to digest in analyzing the major Kentucky Derby prep races across the country on Saturday, including the shuffling of mounts among leading jockeys.

Seven of the 10 horses in Gulfstream Park’s Holy Bull, for example, are experiencing rider changes, as jockeys and their agents go in search of stakes opportunities, not only for the moment, but also in the weeks and months to come, advancing toward the Kentucky Derby.

Here is a sampling of the rider switches in the Holy Bull. Jose Ortiz replaces Frankie Pennington on morning-line favorite Maximus Mischief, opening the mount on Mihos, the Mucho Macho Man winner and second choice on the morning line. Landing there is John Velazquez, who had ridden third favorite Federal Case to an allowance victory. And this clears the way for Javier Castellano to gain the ride on Federal Case.

It is worth emphasizing that jockeys and their agents choose wrongly at times, just as bettors do at the mutuel windows, and still other times, they ride horses based on loyalty to a given trainer or simply due to honoring a commitment.

It is partially for these reasons that the comings and goings of jockeys typically fall fairly low on my pecking order of handicapping considerations, with one exception – when a jockey lands on a horse in a move that is at least somewhat unexpected.

I believe that to be the case with Velazquez on Mihos in the Holy Bull. Although the horse’s virtues are apparent, having won 2 of 3 starts, the move to ride him and not recent allowance winner Federal Case is a bit surprising since Todd Pletcher trains the latter.

For more than 20 years, Velazquez and Pletcher have been among the most successful jockey/trainer combinations around, teaming to win 1,758 races through Wednesday. Among these were 276 graded stakes victories, including the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Always Dreaming.

So, for Velazquez to ride the Jimmy Jerkens-trained Mihos instead of a 2-for-2 runner for Pletcher is seemingly an endorsement of Mihos and perhaps a critique of Federal Case, who had to work hard to win a Dec. 23 first-level allowance by a neck at Gulfstream as the 2-5 favorite.

Yet even before these rider changes, there was plenty to like about Mihos, who has closed determinedly with wide trips to notch his two victories. He did not even look like a winner in midstretch of the Mucho Macho Man but just kept surging when put to pressure.

Even so, Mihos is by no means an empty-the-wallet type of horse on which to wager. He has yet to race two turns, and the competition in the Holy Bull is far stiffer than the 3-year-olds he ran down last out.

In particular, the speedy Maximus Mischief promises to be difficult to catch. Perfect in three starts, capped by a clear-cut score in the Remsen, he is very much the one to beat in the Holy Bull. He is a legitimate top-10 prospect for the Kentucky Derby, but perhaps now is the time to take a chance against him as he kicks off his 3-year-old season.

Many talented colts with similar stakes accomplishments have lost their seasonal debuts over the years, including Catholic Boy, the 2017 Remsen winner, who ran second in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs when unveiled around this time a year ago. That loss came despite him being one of the better Remsen winners of recent years, a horse who would take the Belmont Derby and Travers last summer.

Morning-line odds of 5-2 on Mihos in the Holy Bull do not make the heart race, but in light of the many positive signals surrounding this horse, including the presence of Velazquez, he seems like the best alternative to a short-priced Maximus Mischief.

In another Derby prep on Saturday, a rider change has little bearing on my high opinion of Tax in the Withers at Aqueduct. Although Manny Franco, who rode Tax to a third in the Remsen, is now on rival Moretti, I do not view that as a shocker, given that Pletcher trains Moretti. Franco, like Velazquez, has a developed a winning partnership with Pletcher, especially in recent years.

Junior Alvarado, the new rider of Tax, seems to have an exciting prospect with this mount. If Tax can run back to the kind of performance he put forth in the Remsen, he stands a strong chance. That day, he chased Maximus Mischief for much of the 1 1/8-mile race, kept pace until midstretch, and nearly held second before being caught late by Network Effect.

Having begun his career as a maiden $30,000 claimer before graduating and being claimed by current trainer Danny Gargan from a maiden race for $50,000 one start later, Tax can ill afford regression after a breakthrough race in the Remsen. However, I am optimistic that he can replicate that effort while running back on the Aqueduct surface and over the same distance.