King: Insist on good value in Kentucky Derby Future Wager

The second round of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is upon us, opening for wagering Friday and continuing through Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern.

Here are some thoughts on horses in the lineup, those I see as potential overlays and underlays, as well as some notable runners who are part of the mutuel field. Obviously, the soundest practice is to bet as late as possible Sunday to best know the odds since this wager is parimutuel, unlike a future wager at a Las Vegas casino.

I see value in the following – at least based on their morning-line odds:

Airoforce (1): A morning-line price of 20-1 seems generous on a horse whose lone defeat came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf by a neck and who defeated Bob Baffert’s leading Derby hopeful, Mor Spirit, in a sloppy renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill last fall.

Brody’s Cause (3): Morning-line odds of 30-1 on a Grade 1 winner who has a staying pedigree and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile? Count me in.

Cherry Wine (4): He is a massive overlay at 50-1, though such odds seem highly improbable to stick since he’s won two straight, including a Gulfstream allowance by six lengths over next-out winner Battery.

Danzing Candy (7): After winning two straight at Santa Anita, including a one-mile allowance by 5 3/4 lengths Feb. 4, he vaulted into the Derby picture. If he were in a bigger-name barn, he would be far lower than his 30-1 morning line.

Exaggerator (9): He’s training swiftly for his return in Monday’s San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita, and I like how battle tested and honest he is for a horse who is 20-1 on the line. Other than when outrun in his debut, this horse has never run worse than fourth while racing against many of the best 2-year-olds in America last year.

Greenpointcrusader (12): I could see him drifting up from his 20-1 morning line after a distant second to Derby favorite Mohaymen in the Holy Bull. But what if it rains on Derby Day? He romped in the slop in the Champagne Stakes last fall, and even in defeat in the Holy Bull on a fast track, he still ran a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.

Nyquist (17): So he didn’t leave anyone dropping their jaws with fast times during his championship year in 2015. Well, the good news is that few have run much faster this year at 3. One need only watch a replay of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to know of his quality. Hung wide and shuffled back early, he found a way to win with a dreadful trip.

For one reason or another, I’m not enthused about these horses who figure to draw action:

Gift Box (11): As of Thursday afternoon, he had not worked since Jan. 25. Unless he breezes before Sunday, he would be very much a high-risk play.

Mor Spirit (16): Though he deserves praise for how he won the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, there simply wasn’t much in the race, particularly when one considers that the Los Alamitos Futurity was a Grade 1. He’s 15-1, and I expect he will drop below that morning line, in great part due to the Derby and Triple Crown success of trainer Baffert. A threat but a probable underlay.

Zulu (23): He could drop from his 30-1 morning line as a $900,000 2-year-old purchase who is unbeaten in two starts at Gulfstream. He has a bright future, but I’m not keen to back a horse who has yet to run in a stakes race or run beyond seven furlongs with less than three months to the Derby.

What about the mutuel field (24)? Who are the leading prospects among “All Other 3-year-olds?” There are a number of nice ones, though not so many that 4-5 odds looks very appealing.

Withers Stakes winner Sunny Ridge, whose connections have hinted at skipping the Derby, is one of the most accomplished of those not among the individual betting interests, should his connections catch Derby fever later this spring.

Flexibility fits if he can rebound from a flat fourth in the Withers. He won the Jerome Stakes earlier this year and was chasing Derby favorite Mohaymen last year.

Awesome Speed won the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream going a mile this winter and is bred for distance.

Matt King Coal returned to the work tab Feb. 7 at Belmont for trainer Linda Rice after finishing his promising 2-year-old campaign with a pair of dirt races that earned him Beyers of 93 and 96.

Get Jets won the Sleepy Hollow Stakes for New York-breds at a mile Oct. 24 and returns in a first-level allowance in Saturday’s eighth race at Oaklawn. He is one of seven Triple Crown nominees in that race, which, as a 1 1/16-mile dirt race for 3-year-olds, merits close watching.

Last but not least, there is Cupid, an improving Tapit colt who won his maiden for Baffert when stretched out to 1 1/16 miles Feb. 7 at Santa Anita, a performance that earned him an 87 Beyer.