King: How I'll play the Pick 4 at Tampa Bay for Saturday

Not seeing vulnerability in Catholic Boy and World Approval in separate stakes on Saturday at Tampa, the late Pick 4 there seems best played using a fairly minimal number of combinations. Only the last leg of the wager, a $6,250 claimer, seems wide open and worthy of diving deep.

Here's my analysis of the sequence and my suggested ticket:

Leg One, Race 9, The Endeavour

The first race of the sequence looks safely played using two top-class grass fillies: La Coronel (7) and Dona Bruja (2).

The former looks poised for a banner 4-year-old season based on how she ended 2017, winning the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup over the nation’s best 3-year-old fillies. And she seems fit off a steady worktab.

Dona Bruja, also returning off the bench, won fresh to kick off her year last summer at Churchill. She illustrated her class last summer when dead-heating for second in the Beverly D. and though she was subsequently off the board when fourth in the First Lady at Keeneland in October, she ran well in defeat to close ground after being unwisely restrained well off a slow pace.

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Leg Two, Race 10, The Sam F. Davis

As a multiple graded stakes winner whose only defeat came when a troubled fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Catholic Boy (6) seems in another class than these. He also looked mighty good in winning his first start on dirt when tested in the Remsen last fall, drawing away to win by 4 3/4 lengths over Avery Island, next-out winner of the Gotham.

Trainer Jonathan Thomas seems to have done everything right to prepare this colt for the Sam F. Davis, including giving him a couple breezes over the local strip. A single.

Leg Three, Race 11, The Tampa Bay

This race marks the return of World Approval (7), the champion grass horse of 2017, who not surprisingly stands out. His connections are reportedly eyeing a start in Dubai with him next, but with this horse being proven fresh and racing over the Tampa turf course, he appears without fault. Another single.

Leg Four, Race 12, $6,250 claimer

Low-end claiming races like this make for favorable races in which to spread in multi-race gimmicks. So with that in mind, I advise using six horses: Big Awesome (3), Marble Falls (5), Political Justice (6), Malbec (8), Monkey Money (9), and He’s Etain (10). Little separates their form.

The Tickets
A 50-cent Pick 4 of 2,7 with 6 with 7 with 3,5,6,8,9,10 costs $6.