King: How I'll play Gulfstream for Saturday, Jan. 12
Seeking to capitalize on the overlaid presence of an 8-1 shot in Awesome Hills in the fifth race Saturday at Gulfstream Park, here is a swing at the second of three Pick 4s there on the afternoon.
Race 5: Although favored Bobby Lee (8) could certainly win this $12,500 claimer for 3-year-olds and ranks as a filly to use in the Pick 4, she is no bargain at 7-5 odds on the morning line. That seems short on a horse with just one top-four finish from five starts, coming in her maiden win at the $15,000 level.
Awesome Hills (6), on the other hand, is 8-1, a sweet price on a filly dropping in class from $16,000. Moreover, she broke her maiden for a higher price than Bobby Lee did, winning first out in September at the maiden $25,000 level.
What she lacks is speed, something Bobby Lee has. So I will use both runners in the first leg.
Race 6: Again, the strategy is to go two deep in the Pick 4, using Over Sensual (8) and Trev (1). Both horses suit the conditions of this optional-claiming race from a form perspective, coming off wins over the local strip.
Trev, a speedy 9-year-old, is a frequent visitor to the winner’s circle, having gone 8 for 22 on dirt, and though he is unraced since September, he is proven fresh. His normally high-percentage barn has been chilly during the current meet, however.
Over Sensual starts for the hot stable of trainer Jorge Navarro, who claimed him for $25,000 on a day (Dec. 13) when he won at Gulfstream against nonwinners-of-two opposition. He is now being cut back from a mile to six furlongs, not an angle this handicapper typically likes for a closer, but this horse did break his maiden going three quarters.
Race 7: This straight maiden contest seems a race to spread a bit. Saint Moon (1), Lavish (10), and High Road (9) are the first-through-third choices, respectively – though little separates them. Saint Moon, who carved out quick fractions before fading to fourth in her debut, is the top selection due to offering the most mutuel upside at her 8-1 morning line.
I will use all three, and first-time starter She’s a Problem (4), who has worked a half-mile in 48 seconds and change a few times.
Race 8: Connectivity (2) is an attractive prospect at 12-1 on the morning line, a first-timer that runs for Chad Brown on the turf, but that appeal aside, this seems a competitive race. Hidden Facts (7) and Amandrea (4) also look like leading contenders, coming off in-the-money finishes on grass, and still others would not surprise.
In addition to the above-named trio, two others belong on the tickets: debuting Beautiful Lover (1), another Brown trainee, and Avocado (12), a $250,000 purchase who showed improvement second out when moved to the turf, running third.
The Tickets
A 50-cent Pick Four using the horses discussed above – 6,8 with 1,8 with 1,4,9,10 with 1,2,4,7,12 – costs $40.
