King: How I'd play Saratoga on Sunday, Aug. 16

My betting Sunday at Saratoga will focus around three potential overlaid horses: Tobias (#7, 5-1) in Race 1, Weekend Express (#5, 15-1) in the seventh, and C d’Cat (#2, 4-1) in the eighth. All three appear to have far better chances than their morning-line odds suggest.

Starting with Tobias in the opener, he is a horse starting for a low-profile barn but is established as a turf marathoner, and most of his speed figures on grass suggest he will be tough to beat in this maiden contest on grass. His last race, a second-place finish at Delaware as the favorite, was a disappointing run, but his preceding start when fourth on this course resulted in a defeat of less than four lengths against what seemed a better field.

Weekend Express is by no means a high-probability winner, but he has a much stronger chance than a typical 15-1 shot. A stakes dropper moving into a first-level allowance, he has the potential to improve against easier company and with blinkers coming off.

Though his rider, Corey Lanerie, has been cold at the meet, he was aboard for one of this horse’s two victories in a maiden race at Gulfstream Park.

The horse I like best Sunday is C d’Cat in the eighth. Stretched out from a pair of six-furlong races, he looks fully capable of going a mile, and his two races to date have been highly promising, particularly his latest when the runner-up against similar company.

With Ack Naughty expected to draw the bulk of the public’s wagering dollars in this race, C d’Cat should stick close to his 4-1 morning line or only drop slightly to 7-2 or 3-1.