King: How I'd play Del Mar on Friday
Skipping the first race, where I have no strong opinion among a group of lightly raced or unraced juveniles, the first play of the day comes in Race 2 on Southern Sunrise (No. 9).
A speedy, consistent performer, he joins the barn of trainer Mark Glatt off the claim. According to DRF Formulator statistics, Glatt has won at a 20 percent rate with first-after-claim runners over the past five years, and a $2 win wager on each would have resulted in an average return of $2.12.
Adding to the horse’s appeal is the move to Del Mar, where he won his only start over the Polytrack in August 2013. He also worked a bullet over the local surface July 18.
By my evaluation, he has about a 20 percent chance of winning in this competitive $12,500 claimer, making him an overlay if he sticks to his 6-1 morning line.
Natalie Paige (No. 10) is the next anticipated wager in Race 6, a five-furlong sprint on turf. Blessed with speed, she is perfect in two starts, though this open, first-level allowance represents a class test for her after her winning her two races against easier California-bred company.
She is an appealing 9-2 on the morning line, and the cutback in distance from 6 1/2 furlongs should not hamper her.
That might not be true of the late-running Intoxicating Move, the 3-1 favorite, who has a history of breaking poorly – obviously a negative trait in a race that will be run in less than a minute.
Finally, I will take a shot in the eighth race with second-time starter Summerofsixtythree (No. 9), who after getting bet down to 9-5 in her debut is somehow 6-1 on the line for the nightcap.
Her debut, in which she finished fifth, was obviously an odds-building experience, but even in defeat she showed some flashes of talent. She recovered quickly after a slow start to contest a fast pace and then faded, as most debuting horses do.
Expect her to show more staying power the second time out, and she also is drawn better toward the outside, as opposed to her debut, where she broke from the fence, an intimidating position for an inexperienced horse.