King: How I'd play Belmont on Sunday, July 19
The Belmont spring/summer meet comes to a close Sunday before racing shifts upstate to Saratoga on Friday. So, bear in mind that there will be mandatory payouts in pools that might otherwise have a carryover if not hit.
Three horses in particular caught my interest in handicapping the card: longshot Forma's Joy (#1, 10-1 morning line) in the opener, second favorite Magician’s Bullet (#1, 5-2) in race 8, and Lucky Leroy Brown (#6, 6-1) in the 10th and final.
Forma’s Joy is a value-based play in the first race. She is not the most likely winner, but she seems far better than her morning line would suggest. She was only 1 1/4 lengths behind Wake Up Smiling last out when fourth June 24, and the latter horse is the 2-1 favorite.
Admittedly, Wake Up Smiling was debuting and can improve, but Forma’s Joy might as well. She is making her third start off a layoff, which can be the peak race of a horse’s form cycle.
As for Magician’s Bullet in the eighth race, I am encouraged by the class drop he is taking from first-level allowances in Maryland to run in a starter $50,000, nonwinners-of-two race. He also owns the top recent turf Beyer Speed Figures in the race.
Coming from Maryland and being untested going six furlongs on turf, I suspect he will be the second choice behind Black Tide, who ran a troubled third against similar in his last start.
Finally, in the nightcap, look for Lucky Leroy Brown to appreciate a class drop in his second start of the year. His average margin of defeat in three starts is less than four lengths, and he has never been in as cheap as maiden $40,000.