King: How I'd play BC Distaff/Classic double
If you’re a fan of the Kentucky Oaks/Derby double offered every year at Churchill Downs, chances are you’ll like the Distaff/Classic double on tap for the Breeders’ Cup this Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita. It offers the chance to play the two biggest races each day and, in addition to the potential for a decent payoff, the lure of connecting on two such prestigious races.
So, let’s get to handicapping, starting with the Distaff, Friday’s main attraction.
I wish I could say I have some really strong opinion regarding a longshot, but the favorites look tough in the Distaff. UNTAPABLE (#10, 5-2) is the most likely winner, followed by CLOSE HATCHES (#11, 3-1).
Untapable has been head and shoulders above her 3-year-old filly counterparts this year and is likely up to the challenge of beating elders, particularly with Close Hatches coming into the race off a subpar effort in the Spinster, where she ran fourth as the 1-5 favorite.
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Despite how poor that last race was from Close Hatches, you still have to use her because her mere presence indicates that Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is viewing the Spinster as a toss-out.
For the possibility of blowing up this bet, the suggestion is to also use, to a lesser extent, BELLE GALLANTEY (#4, 6-1), a former claimer who has never received much respect despite excellent form over the second half of the year.
In the Classic, SHARED BELIEF (#6, 9-5) is the most likely winner – no surprise there. He’s found ways to win all of his seven starts, including in the Awesome Again Stakes, in which he was carried wide.
One thing about Shared Belief: If you take out his Pacific Classic Beyer Speed Figure – 115 – aided by a blazing pace – he is by no means a Beyer standout.
If he is beaten, one would have to think fellow 3-year-olds TONALIST (#11, 5-1) or CALIFORNIA CHROME (#13, 4-1) are the ones most likely to manage it. The older horses in the race are an undistinguished lot.
The tickets
Let’s play a number of tickets – one with top choices: $6 doubles of 10-11 with 6; $4 doubles of 10-11 with 11-13; a $4 double of 4 with 6; and $2 doubles of 4 with 11-13. Total cost: is $36.