King: Hootenanny, Timeline two favorites to avoid

Two of my three column wagering plays for Saturday are on value horses matched against perceived overbet favorites with reputations.

One such favorite, Hootenanny in the Grade 3 Hanshin Cup at Arlington, is, at least in my view, a has-been, while the other, Timeline, is an undefeated colt in the Peter Pan at Belmont who is likely to be bet like he could be the next major challenger to Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming.

I would rather take a contrarian view in these races by backing 9-2 shot Ghost Hunter in the Hanshin and 2-1 Master Plan in the Peter Pan. Both horses are quality runners and should be respectable prices as the probable second favorites.

In the Hanshin, there are numerous reasons to like Ghost Hunter. A versatile horse, he ran well in his seasonal debut April 22 at Laurel Park, rallying to be third in the Henry Clark Stakes over yielding ground and earning a career-best 95 Beyer Speed Figure. And based on his form, Ghost Hunter ought to run just as well with the move to Polytrack.

Ghost Hunter is 8 for 12 on synthetic tracks, including a victory in the Presque Isle Mile last September. He also ran well in defeat, finishing fourth in the Grade 2 Autumn at Woodbine against synthetic specialist Are You Kidding Me in his final race of 2016.

As for Hootenanny, the winner of the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he is just 2 for 7 since, with those victories coming in allowances, including one at Belterra Park. On Saturday, he could be further disadvantaged by not having raced since October.

I’m going to try to get Hootenanny, the 3-1 favorite on the morning line, out of the exacta. My wagering strategy is a win bet on Ghost Hunter and exactas using Ghost Hunter first and second with Dac, Wyeth, Crewman, and Rated R Superstar.

As for the Peter Pan, I don’t dispute that Timeline is the most likely winner. But with as much hype as this horse is getting after splashing his way to a 13 1/2-length victory in the slop April 6 at Aqueduct, he has no chance of starting at his 7-5 morning line. Try 3-5 or shorter. And that’s too low on a horse who has yet to race in a stakes or go 1 1/8 miles.

Master Plan, on the other hand, may not have the raw brilliance of Timeline, but he is battle tested, having raced in three stakes, including a trip halfway across the world when he finished third in the UAE Derby. And though Master Plan was never a threat to the top two in that Dubai race, he steadily gained through the lane against a solid field.

With this race having just six horses, it will be hard to get a fat price on Master Plan. But he should at least stick to his 2-1 morning line in a race in which there are few other quality alternatives.

Triple Chelsea better positioned

A change in post could result in a change in outcome for Triple Chelsea in the Unbridled Sydney at Churchill Downs.

Last time out April 15 in the Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland, Triple Chelsea was drawn in post 2, and though well positioned early, she eventually was asked to rally up the inside of a tiring leader and seemed to want no part of passing from that position. But on Saturday, she is drawn outside in post 11, which should allow her a clear trip while stalking a number of speedballs.

This winter in Florida, Triple Chelsea showed what she could do when she gets a clear run. She won the Lightning City Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs with a closing burst and rallied to be third behind Pretty Perfection in the Ladies Turf Sprint at Gulfstream Park.

If Triple Chelsea can replicate those two efforts, she has a strong chance to win the Unbridled Sydney at or near her 9-2 morning-line odds.