King: Handicapping tips for Keeneland configuration

LEXINGTON, Ky. – With the Breeders’ Cup just days away, here’s a primer of what to expect from the host track, Keeneland Race Course.

As with all Breeders’ Cup venues, it adds its own uniqueness to some races, specifically to the Dirt Mile, Filly and Mare Turf, Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies, and Turf Sprint.

The Dirt Mile, over two turns, has been the most talked about of the aforementioned races, and deservedly so. With Keeneland being a 1 1/16-mile track in circumference, the Dirt Mile starts in close proximity to the first turn and ends at the track’s first finish line, what is otherwise the sixteenth pole. That finish line also will be used for the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies, though the use of this “sixteenth-pole” finish is the norm when Keeneland cards 1 1/16-mile races.

As for the Filly and Mare Turf, it is being run this year at its shortest distance, 1 3/16 miles, compared to past runnings at 1 1/4 miles and 1 3/8 miles at other venues.

Lastly, the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint is being run at a tweener distance of 5 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland, compared to 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita and five furlongs at Churchill. Santa Anita and Churchill are the only tracks to have run the Turf Sprint since it was inaugurated in 2008.

Some of the changes are more significant than others, so let’s take a look at them race by race.

Dirt Mile

To avoid changing the distance of the race, Keeneland and Breeders’ Cup officials had to make a couple of maneuvers. First, they gave the race a 70-yard “run-up” before the timing begins, hoping to give the field a little more time to get situated, and then they shortened the stretch to end at the first finish, the line used for 1 1/16-mile races at Keeneland.

Shortening the stretch will undoubtedly cause many horseplayers to jump to the conclusion that speed horses will be at an advantage, but I think it will have little bearing on the outcome – at least based on three races run on the main track at a mile this month at Keeneland. Two of the three winners rallied from the rear half of the pack, while the other won on the front end.

Of the three winners in these dirt miles, the winning posts were 2, 3, and 4 – with Corey Lanerie riding a pair of winners and Julien Leparoux the other.

Field size in these races was much shorter than what is expected for the Dirt Mile. One race went with only six horses, and the other two had eight each – so with a field of 11 expected in the Dirt Mile, expect a stampede into to the first turn as riders look to get favorable position with their mounts.

Inside- or middle-drawn horses seemed to have an advantage over those breaking from the outside, in part due to ground loss and also because the riders on these outside horses are forced to commit with their mounts more than their rival riders, who don’t have to be in such a hurry to tuck in with the short nine-second run to the first turn.

Filly and Mare Turf

At 1 3/16 miles, this race is expected to draw more middle-distance routers than if it had been at 1 3/8 miles, around three turns, at Churchill, for example.

Other than altering the complexion of the field, I’m treating it pretty much as I did in the years when it was run over 1 1/4 miles at Santa Anita and other tracks. I doubt the race being a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the past two years will have much bearing on the outcome.

Perhaps downgrade those who draw on the far outside a smidge, with the field starting on the tail end of the final turn, two or three seconds before they enter the stretch. But after that, the field has a long run of about a quarter-mile for jockeys to place their mounts.

This is another raced capped at 12 starters.

Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies

With these races beginning and ending at the first finish – the typical sixteenth pole – the perception is that the races favor speed. And while speed is an advantage most everywhere, it is inaccurate to think that these short-stretch races move up the front-runners significantly. They don’t.

I could go into depth as to why this is – jockeys ride the race differently, these races draw more speed because of the layout, etc. – but the why isn’t really important. Just the simple fact that it isn’t speed biased beyond typical dirt norms across the country is what matters.

Put the unique configuration of these juvenile races low in your handicapping pecking order – though far outside draws will likely be a disadvantage as they are for most any two-turn route due to the increased likelihood for ground loss.

Turf Sprint

Although the Keeneland track can’t accommodate a one-turn mile, which I prefer to see for the Dirt Mile, it can run a long 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint that other tracks with seven-furlong courses – such as Churchill, which can only go only as far as five furlongs – cannot. That extra sixteenth of a mile is a welcome thing, along with Keeneland’s long stretch, lessening the usual advantage that five-furlong speedballs have in races less than a minute or so in length.