King: Gunnevera best value option in Holy Bull

Though the three stakes horses I am eager to bet on Saturday at Gulfstream Park quite possibly aren’t the best horses in their races, they do seem to be the runners best played given the circumstances.

All three – Gunnevera in the Holy Bull, Compelled in the Sweetest Chant, and Kitten’s Cat in the Kitten’s Joy – seem probable to start as mild overlays, and the race conditions favor them too. Let’s take a look at the races, beginning with the richest stakes of the day, the Grade 2, $350,000 Holy Bull.

Holy Bull

This race marks the return of Classic Empire, last year’s 2-year-old male champ and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, whose only defeat in five starts came when he tossed his rider at the start of the Hopeful. A deserving early favorite for the Kentucky Derby, Classic Empire is the most accomplished 3-year-old in the race and likely the one with the strongest long-term prospects.

But what is the value in betting him as the favorite? His strengths are all too apparent in the past performances, and this race is a stepping-stone for bigger prizes down the road.

That seems apparent in his relatively easy work tab this year, in which three of his four works have rated as below average for the time and distance on those particular mornings at Palm Meadows. His latest last Saturday was timed in a slow 1:03.90 for five furlongs.

Admittedly, Classic Empire wasn’t asked for his best in most of those works, but still, it raises the question of whether the screws have been tightened. I doubt they have been.

As an alternative, I’m trying Gunnevera, the Delta Jackpot winner who has trained briskly at Gulfstream Park West leading up to the Holy Bull.

Although Gunnevera is a two-time graded stakes winner, I still get the feeling that some don’t properly respect him because he was bought for a mere $17,000 at auction and trains at Gulfstream Park West, where most of the horse population is comprised of claimers.

I loved his race in the Jackpot, admittedly against a modest field. Horses aren’t supposed to successfully rally from last five wide on a bullring, and he did so, drawing off to win by 5 3/4 lengths.

Sweetest Chant

One race before the Holy Bull, 3-year-old fillies race a mile on turf in the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant. It seems like a sure thing that the public will be enthralled with Chad Brown trainees Okinawa and Rymska, particularly Rymska, who ran fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf after falling farther off the pace than usual from a post toward the outside.

They seem like legit runners, along with several others in the field, but I prefer Compelled, who owns the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure, an 86 earned in winning a Florida-bred stakes under the mildest of urging at Gulfstream Park West on Nov. 12.

My advice is to forget Compelled is a Florida-bred because she isn’t bred like one. She’s a Glen Hill Farm homebred by War Front and out of a Dynaformer mare, and on pedigree, Compelled has every right to be superior to the others in this field – even putting aside what she has done on the track.

Kitten’s Joy

Not to be forgotten are the chances of Kitten’s Cat in the Kitten’s Joy, which, like the Sweetest Chant, is contested at a mile on turf.

Kitten’s Cat figures to be a much better price than the 9-5 odds at which he started in the Jan. 7 Dania Beach, a race that was won by 6-5 favorite Made Your Look. And I suspect Kitten’s Cat will also be ready for a much better performance.

Given that Kitten’s Cat was fourth in the Dania Beach, he certainly needs to run better. But thankfully, one can make excuses for him given that he was returning from two months away and was hemmed in during much of his comeback, seemingly getting discouraged.

Kitten’s Cat has shown that he can run quite well when he can get a clear trip on the outside, as he did when he won the Juvenile Turf Sprint at the Breeders’ Cup, and drawn in post 7 of eight on Saturday, the makeup of this race suits him far better.