King: Ground with give offers chance to hunt for value
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Just as a soggy turf course at Churchill Downs affected the performances of some Breeders’ Cup participants a couple of weeks ago, damp grass conditions could influence the outcome of two of Saturday’s graded stakes – the River City from Churchill Downs and the Red Smith from Aqueduct.
Snow and then rain is forecast for New York through Friday morning, after a less harsh wintry system passed through Kentucky on Thursday. This leaves me to anticipate wet, drying-out courses at Churchill and Aqueduct on Saturday. So, let’s look at how testing conditions might change the handicapping picture for those races.
Beginning with the River City, wet going would seem to have little impact on favored Mr. Misunderstood, other than perhaps to make him a more clear-cut public choice. He is 2 for 3 on wet turf courses, having won a maiden race at Indiana Grand in October 2016 and the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf last fall at Churchill on good ground. His lone defeat on wet turf was a sixth in last month’s Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland, also run on a good course.
He is not alone in having wet-grass form. Three of his rivals have even won over yielding surfaces, with Master Merion and Big Changes winning stakes, and Sir Dudley Digges an allowance at Churchill in November 2017. Others, such as Postulation – who is cross entered in the Red Smith – have performed well in defeat under testing conditions.
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Although I respect Mr. Misunderstood, I zeroed in on the alternatives and settled on Sir Dudley Digges as a value play.
In examining his career past performances in DRF Formulator – from which starts on wet grass can be filtered, making for easy study – it is evident this horse is at his best on such going, particularly at Churchill.
He has three wins over the local course when the ground was less than firm – the aforementioned score over yielding turf a year ago, plus two more when the course was rated good.
His proficiency at Churchill aside, he does have a couple drawbacks, notably that he is unraced since a third-place finish Aug. 5 at Ellis Park in an ungraded, $100,000 stakes race. He’s also not enjoying as rewarding a year in 2018 as he did in prior seasons. However, at 8-1 on the morning line, I’m willing to be forgiving.
This is a horse that won fresh in March in the Barbados Gold Cup, suggesting he might be able to do so again, and steady works dating all the way back to Aug. 25 indicate he hasn’t missed any meaningful time in his training. He starts for trainer Mike Maker, who also runs Oscar Nominated, a classy horse but one coming off a couple of off-the-board placings.
Turning to the Red Smith, Maker also is well represented there, this time with three entrants – Zulu Alpha, Soglio, and Bigger Picture. Any of the trio could win, with the streaking Zulu Alpha favored at 5-2 on the morning line. The favorite will be making his first start for Maker after winning the Sycamore for trainer John Ortiz.
Still, this race appears closely matched, leaving me to go looking for a price. So, I’ll take a shot with Village King, a 15-1 longshot. A developing sort for trainer Todd Pletcher, he looks like he might have another forward move in him after a fourth and third in two allowances over the second half of this year.
This horse previously raced in Argentina, where he ran third in the prestigious Carlos Pellegrini, annually one of the top races in South America. That race, along with an earlier Group 1 win for this horse, came on ground rated as heavy.
Sometimes speed horses can be more effective over a laboring turf course, and Village King certainly possesses speed. He has led at the first call in his two U.S. races, both going 1 1/16 miles.
Saturday in the Red Smith, he stretches out to 1 3/8 miles. Judging his form in Argentina, he seems to be a horse that might appreciate the longer distance, or perhaps simply the slower pace that is often the case in a marathon race.
He needs to step up from his current form if he is to surprise, but his last-race 97 Beyer Speed Figure puts him in the mix if Zulu Alpha regresses off the 102 he earned with a perfect trip in the Sycamore.
