King: Four live longshots in Grade 1 stakes
Trying to land a longshot in a short field can feel as fruitless as beach fishing for swordfish. Both varieties are found far more often in deeper waters.
So it is refreshing for value-seeking horseplayers that so many of the major races Saturday at Belmont Park and Santa Anita offer quality as well as depth. This gives longshot seekers numerous chances to connect with a potential bomb.
Below are four live longshots running in Grade 1 races on Saturday. None of the quartet is a high-percentage winner, but all will likely be a point or two higher on the odds board than they should be.
Belmont, Flower Bowl
A field of nine and the presence of such highly regarded turf mares such as Stephanie’s Kitten, Abaco, Viva Rafaela, Strathnaver, and Alterite should create value on any other starter.
The longshot choice is Tannery, a classy Grade 1-winning filly, but one likely to be overlooked in the Flower Bowl due to due to questionable form following two consecutive 10th-place finishes. She is 15-1 on the morning line.
Why like her? A return to Belmont Park, a turf course over which she has run well previously and which is in close proximity to her New Jersey training base.
Excuses also can be made for her last two failures. Two starts ago, she uncharacteristically was rank and raced close to the pace before fading in the Grade 1 Diana, and then she was outrun when shipped to Chicago to run in the Beverly D., one of the toughest races every year for older turf mares.
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With rain falling in New York on Thursday, perhaps there will still be a little give in the ground left by Saturday – conditions Tannery likes.
Belmont, Vosburgh
Palace, Happy My Way, and Private Zone are the logical favorites in the Vosburgh, and the thinking is the public will concentrate their support on them, perhaps allowing Salutos Amigos to go off at or above his 6-1 morning line.
Although not as accomplished as the aforementioned runners, Salutos Amigos has run Beyer Speed Figures of 103 and 106 in two of his six starts in New York this year. The 106 came most recently in an Aug. 31 race at Saratoga, and somewhat surprisingly gives him the top last-race figure in the race. And with that figure coming in an allowance, one can hope it won’t receive the same level of respect by bettors that a lofty stakes figure would.
Salutos Amigos also has a stalking style that should result in a good trip in the Vosburgh – a race in which the majority of the leading contenders, Palace excluded, prefer to race on the lead.
Belmont, Jockey Club Gold Cup
Never thought the day would come that I would want to back Prayer for Relief in a Grade 1 stakes, but apparently it has. Although winless in eight starts this year, he has carved out a $327,025 bankroll in 2014 by earning minor awards in lucrative stakes.
Prayer for Relief also has outrun the public’s expectations for the most part, running second, third, or fourth at double-digit odds in five of his last six races – all in Grade 1 or Grade 2 stakes. And perhaps now he has a shot to win, catching a group that lacks star power among its older horses and with the 3-year-olds in it being unproven outside their age group.
Coming off a close third in the Woodward, Prayer for Relief is attractive at his 15-1 morning line.
Santa Anita, Rodeo Drive
With 14 horses in the Rodeo Drive, appealing odds should be found on a number of legitimate contenders. That includes Stormy Lucy, who should go off in excess of 10-1 after four consecutive defeats.
If horseplayers examine her form in greater detail, particularly her last race when fourth with a troubled trip in the Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar, it becomes clear Stormy Lucy has a shot. She broke slowly in the Yellow Ribbon and had traffic difficulties in the stretch, and only lost by 1 1/2 lengths.
Now she returns to Santa Anita, where she recorded her two biggest victories earlier in the year, most notably in the Grade 2 Santa Ana at this race’s distance of 1 1/4 miles on turf.