King: Formulator pedigree analysis offers clues about juveniles' upside

Entries are in short supply for Saturday’s Grade 1 American Pharoah and Grade 1 Chandelier stakes at Santa Anita, which drew a combined 11 juveniles. Questions, however, are in abundance. Virtually all of these 2-year-olds are uncertainties to some degree, whether in respect to the 1 1/16-mile distance of the two races or from a class perspective.

This leaves horseplayers needing to anticipate more than they usually would. And for this handicapper, that means placing a larger emphasis on pedigrees. While by no means a fail-proof strategy – we have all seen horses outrun their pedigrees – it can often fill in the gaps when past performances are limited.

Here, Daily Racing Form’s Formulator online database comes in handy relative to traditional past performances. With the click of a mouse, a sire’s history as a racehorse can be examined along with the records of his progeny. Females within a horse’s family also can be accessed in this fashion.

Utilizing Formulator as a resource, what follows below is my pedigree analysis for the American Pharoah and the Chandelier, focusing on those stretching out to routes for the first time.

Three colts do that in the American Pharoah – likely favorite Game Winner, winner of the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity last out; Del Mar Futurity runner-up Rowayton; and fourth-place finisher Sigalert.

As a of son of Candy Ride, who notably won the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic in 2013, and being out of the unraced A.P. Indy mare Indyan Giving, Game Winner clearly has the pedigree to route. This holds true even if one digs deeper within his female family. His second dam, Fleet Indian, was a dual Grade 1 winner at 1 1/4 miles even though she was by a speed sire in Indian Charlie.

Game Winner’s only sibling to race, half-brother Flagstaff, has proven a sprinter, though he is by Speightstown, whose runners are typically one-turn performers.

Rowayton has fewer stamina influences within his immediate bloodlines. Progeny of his sire, Into Mischief, are more apt to be sprinters or milers than stayers, and his unraced dam, Rosemonde, is by the aforementioned Indian Charlie. Her dam, Kid Majic, also recorded her two victories sprinting, though she did place in routes.

Lastly, Sigalert brings a mixture of stamina and middle-distance influences among his family, with his sire, 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, providing the stamina and the his dam, Ouchy Night, less so. Although competitive at times in races at about a mile, all four of her victories came going seven furlongs or less.

Turning to the Chandelier, the ninth race at Santa Anita, all but Vibrance are stretching out to two turns for the first time.

Of these, Mother Mother is out of a sprinter, though some of her foals have gone long, notably Commanding Curve, the runner-up in the 2014 Kentucky Derby.

Del Mar May has largely a sprinter’s pedigree, sired by Jimmy Creed, whose highlight win was the Grade 1 Malibu at seven-eighths in 2012. She also is out of an Illinois-bred mare, Big Lou, who did best going three-quarters or shorter.

Left among the stretch-out entries are Brill, Der Lu, and Bellafina, offering varying degrees of stamina in their pedigrees. All three are by route sires, though both Der Lu and Bellafina are out of turf-sprinting dams. Der Lu’s dam, Taboo, won her only race going five furlongs at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing), while Akron Moon, the dam of Bellafina, recorded her lone victory in a 6 1/2-furlong race at Woodbine.

Worth noting is that Bellafina’s full brother Diamond King is a stakes-winning sprinter and router. This year at age 3, he won the 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio at Laurel and most recently was second in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones at 1 1/16 miles on Aug. 25 at Parx.

Based on her brother’s achievements, it would appear she could go 1 1/16 miles. That is, if she is of the right mind-set. She was a bit eager to engage down the backstretch in winning the Del Mar Debutante, which likely contributed to her much-publicized slow winning time and closing fraction.

Trainer Simon Callaghan now removes her blinkers, a clear attempt to get his speedy filly to settle. He also has been training her to rate off horses, and an outside draw in the Chandelier should lend jockey Flavien Prat an assist toward this goal.

Regardless, the upgrades on pedigree belong to Game Winner in the American Pharoah and Brill in the Chandelier. The former seems improbable to offer any value and is therefore a wagering pass, but perhaps Brill will be somewhat overlooked after a dull fourth in the Del Mar Debutante.