King: Fly Girl can rebound at a price in Maryland Million Lassie

Forgiveness is not a virtue many horseplayers possess, and I count myself among those in that coldhearted lot. We are more “blaming” types, attributing losing bets to poor rides, bad horses, and track biases.

But on Thursday, as I handicapped stakes from across the country for this column, I found myself with a new attitude, giving horses free passes for negative races or blemishes in their past performances. Now, I can only hope it pays off – in cash more than in spirit.

Here’s a look at three stakes in which I found horses who warrant a little forgiveness:

MARYLAND MILLION LASSIE (Laurel Park, Race 2)

Coming off a fifth-place finish in the Selima Stakes in her first start on dirt and with a cold-riding Angel Serpa now in the irons, Fly Girl could get overlooked in the Maryland Million Lassie, a six-furlong sprint on the main track (post time: 12:52 p.m. Eastern).

As poorly as she finished in the off-the-turf Selima, losing by more than 10 lengths in the slop, I don’t believe that race was representative of her ability. She broke last, uncharacteristically slow for her, and ran up on heels a furlong or so into the race, complicating her trip.

Since Fly Girl previously raced on turf, my hope is that the betting public will leap to the conclusion off her race in the Selima that she’s not a dirt horse and dismiss her to some extent. But my take on her last race is that it only proved she is not capable of running effectively in the slop when she breaks poorly and has a troubled trip – nothing more.

On a fast surface, we might see a new filly, and that’s what I will be betting on come Saturday.

N.Y. BREEDERS’ FUTURITY (Finger Lakes, Race 5)

In contrast to Fly Girl, who was unplaced in the Selima, I’m not forgiving a lousy last race from my choice in the New York Breeders’ Futurity, Mind Your Biscuits. I’m just letting it slide that he is a maiden and already has lost to one of these rivals, Championofthenile, by six lengths in their lone meeting.

Championofthenile certainly was superior to Mind Your Biscuits when they met in a maiden race Sept. 4 at Saratoga. But with Championofthenile running slower in a subsequent start when third in a slow-paced stakes race at Belmont and Mind Your Biscuits the fresher of the two for this race, perhaps the tables can be turned.

At equal odds for these two colts, one would be crazy not to like Championofthenile, but that’s not going to be the case. Championofthenile is likely going to be 7-5 or less, with Mind Your Biscuits more in the area of 7-2.

The presence of opposing speed to run with Championofthenile early and set up the rally of Mind Your Biscuits is yet another reason to like the latter.

The New York Breeders’ Futurity goes as the fifth race Saturday at Finger Lakes at 3:16 p.m. Eastern.

HAWTHORNE DERBY (Hawthorne, Race 8)

When Nun the Less last ran at Churchill Downs in the Jefferson Cup, I expected a top effort. Coming off a sharp performance in winning the Mystic Lake Derby at Canterbury Park and sent to Kentucky by trainer Chris Block, who is known for his success with shippers from Chicago, there were at least two positive signals pointing to Nun the Less threatening in the race.

Instead, he never challenged, being reserved behind a dawdling pace and passing only a couple of horses in the lane to be seventh.

If he were among the favorites in the Hawthorne Derby (post time: 5:40 p.m. Central) or even as low as 6-1 or so, I’d never think about supporting him. But he’s 12-1 on the line, just a race after being 2-1 in the Jefferson Cup, and he probably will stick to that price, not only due to his last race but with the betting public getting caught up backing others horses ridden by big-name, out-of-town jockeys.

In contrast, Nun the Less has Hawthorne-based Eddie Perez in the saddle.