King: File away these tough BC trips now, cash later

The Breeders’ Cup is a week in the books, so here’s my postmortem on horses who had killer trips that prevented them from running to their potential.

This is not to say that these horses should have won their Breeders’ Cup races, only that they were compromised. So take that into consideration if they return in appropriate spots.

Let’s start with the Nov. 5 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. This race was the roughest of all the Breeders’ Cup races, which likely contributed to the win by longshot Champagne Room in a slow time of 1:45.12 for 1 1/16 miles. That time was more than 2 1/2 seconds slower than Classic Empire’s winning time of 1:42.60 in the Juvenile later on the Nov. 5 card.

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The replay shows why several key contenders didn’t run faster. Favored American Gal broke slowly from her outside post and had a ridiculously wide trip, covering 48 more feet than the winner, according to Trakus statistics, and 72 more feet than the ground-saving runner-up, Valadorna.

That noted, few handicappers missed her trip, and she is likely to receive great figures on the Ragozin Sheets and Thorograph, two handicapping products that take into account ground loss. Her backers will be out in full strength next out.

Others had trouble behind her, and they are the more-intriguing horses in terms of future value. They include fifth-place Jamyson ‘n Ginger, who was checked twice and taken back to last into the first turn before rallying late; sixth-place Union Strike, who broke poorly and then grew rank behind horses after being hustled early; and Yellow Agate and Sweet Loretta, who ran 10th and 11th after getting bounced around in tight into the first turn.

I would consider this a toss-out race for those horses.

Going forward, I’m eager to back Yellow Agate perhaps most. She seemed keen in her first start going two turns in the Juvenile Fillies, and would have been better served being cut loose early by her rider. She could have ended up with the pace-pressing trip that Champagne Room experienced, rather than sitting in midpack and getting jostled and discouraged.

As for Champagne Room, she is a bet-against for me in her next start. She had a perfect, two-wide, pace-pressing journey and really should have run faster in light of how the race developed.

American Gal wasn’t the only horse on the card to have an extremely wide BC trip. So, too, did Good Samaritan and La Coronel. Good Samaritan flew home to third in the Juvenile Turf, covering 25 feet more than victorious Oscar Performance and 62 more feet than runner-up Lancaster Bomber, according to Trakus. La Coronel wound up sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf after racing 44 more feet than winner New Money Honey.

Both were unlucky to draw posts toward the outside, and without the speed to clear much of the inside traffic, they were hung out with no chance to drop in despite their riders’ efforts.

The Juvenile had far less traffic than the Juvenile Fillies, though one horse did catch my eye with some early trouble: Three Rules. Off a step or two slowly, he was rushed up to chase the leaders and ended up racing three to four wide most of the race.

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Normally a quick-breaking horse, he is most comfortable sitting one-two early. Give him long consideration when he returns over the winter in Gulfstream, his home track.