King: Ever So Clever could get good setup in Pippin Stakes

There are horses who make their own luck and those who are dependent on it. And Ever So Clever, a 6-1 shot in Saturday’s Pippin Stakes at Oaklawn, seems to fall into the luck-dependent camp as a closer who needs a contested pace to be at her best.

Fortunately for her, the conditions of the Pippin look ripe for that scenario, which could provide her with the luck she needs. The race favorites, Terra Promessa and Farrell, are headstrong types who want to race on or near the lead, and being fresh and drawn toward the inside, they seem likely to be allowed to run to their wishes.

Beyond pace, Terra Promessa might further be disadvantaged by not having raced since a sound defeat when second in the three-horse Shuvee in July at Saratoga. After all that time away, the Pippin looks like a means to an end to prepare her for more prestigious races such as the Azeri and Apple Blossom later in the Oaklawn meet.

Ever So Clever, who like Terra Promessa is trained by Steve Asmussen, seems more primed for the Pippin after finishing 2017 with a pair of runner-up stakes finishes.

As for Farrell, she won the Grade 2 Chilukki at Churchill Downs on Nov. 4 in her most recent start – a race not as strong as it looks on paper. Although she defeated a deep field of 13 rivals, she received a below-par 85 Beyer Speed Figure, and all the front-half finishers from that race to return have subsequently gone unplaced.

She also took off down the backstretch in that one-turn mile, clearly wanting to be in front, a preference Terra Promessa also showed last year at 4.

So, with the morning-line favorites potentially vulnerable and likely to be eyeballing each other early, I’ll try Ever So Clever as a value play in the Pippin, hoping that what seems like a lucky opportunity translates into a stakes victory.

Monster Bea in Col. Bradley

Another 6-1 morning-line shot, Monster Bea, also holds wagering appeal in the Col. E.R. Bradley at Fair Grounds. He comes off a runner-up finish in the Artie Schiller Stakes at Aqueduct on Nov. 18, his best effort of 2017.

Breaking from post 9 in a 10-horse field that afternoon under Joe Bravo, Monster Bea was asked to deviate from his usual off-the-pace style to establish position into the first turn, and he pressed a longshot leader. But the energy he expended early didn’t cost him too much late.

Fire Away ran him down to win by a length with a perfect ground-saving trip, and Monster Bea showed determination to hold the runner-up spot when it seemed that eventual third-place finisher Hollywood Hideaway was ready to pass him inside the sixteenth pole.

Monster Bea is drawn much better in post 4 in the Col. E.R. Bradley, and John Velazquez can use stalking tactics with him or get him involved early.

Silverbulletday: Heavenly Love

One race earlier on the Fair Grounds card, I like Heavenly Love to rebound from a dismal effort when beaten 40 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – a race that appears to be too bad to be true.

Yes, she raced over a part of the track that was unfavorable on Breeders’ Cup Saturday, but it wasn’t 40 lengths unfavorable. So, my thinking is there was more to her dull finish than that. My guess is she threw in the towel for some other reason, perhaps due to having shipped across the country or having eaten dirt on the inside.

I am encouraged that she has now been working at Fair Grounds for the past month and is drawn in post 7, a position from which jockey Julien Leparoux should be able to keep her in the clear.

She showed too much talent in victories last year at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland to believe that her Breeders’ Cup thumping is representative of her ability. Still, she figures to face a stiff challenge in the Silverbulletday Stakes even if she returns to form, facing a talented crew that includes Demoiselle winner Wonder Gadot, Juvenile Fillies third-place finisher Blonde Bomber, and the streaking America’s Tale.