King: Evaluating stakes contenders following a trainer switch

Along with being stakes races on the grass, the San Gabriel at Santa Anita and the Pan Zareta at Fair Grounds on Saturday share another similarity: notable entrants who have changed trainers since their last start. Cleopatra’s Strike goes for trainer Phil D’Amato for the first time in the San Gabriel, while both Contributing and Goldberry switch trainers to race for Brad Cox in the Pan Zareta.

These switches are important handicapping considerations. D’Amato and Cox are highly skilled trainers who are likely to have these runners ready for peak efforts. The numbers for both trainers bear this out, with each having a 22 percent win average over the past year with horses making their first start for them, according to Formulator statistics. That does not include horses acquired via claims.

D’Amato has gone 7 for 32 with the angle over the past year, along with a profitable return at the betting windows. A $2 bet on each would have yielded an average return of $3.28.

Among his winners over this stretch was Fault, who rattled off three consecutive graded stakes victories after joining him last winter, taking the Buena Vista at Santa Anita in the first start of her win streak at 12-1 odds last February.

Meanwhile, Cox has been the recipient of even more new stock of late as his training career has rocketed forward. Formulator statistics indicate he has gone 14 for 64 over the past year with first-after-trainer-switch runners, though usually connecting with limited prices. This led to a $1.51 ROI with such runners.

Still, some still managed to go off at decent odds. Just a couple weeks ago, for example, Beau Recall made her first start for him, winning the Blushing K.D. at Fair Grounds at 5-1 odds.

Now, the question is can Saturday’s runners continue these winning trends? Perhaps. While far from likely winners, they have room for improvement and are worthy of being plays at the right prices.

Cleopatra’s Strike in particular seems in need of a leap forward if he is to win the San Gabriel. He went 1 for 5 in 2018 while racing in modest allowances at Woodbine and is now matched against Grade 2 runners Saturday.

He is at least showing the right signs. He has recorded two consecutive bullet breezes on dirt over the Santa Anita training track while maintaining a consistent workout pattern. Moreover, he attracts jockey Flavien Prat, with whom D’Amato has teamed to win at a 27 percent rate in 2018-19.

It was Prat who became the regular rider on another ex-Canadian whom D’Amato brought to a higher level under his care. That horse was Ransom the Moon, who went from being an average allowance horse at Woodbine to a multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter in California over the past two years.

Ransom the Moon had the benefit of getting an allowance prep in his first start at Santa Anita, unlike Cleopatra’s Strike, who failed to draw into an allowance Dec. 28 after landing on the also-eligible list. Next Shares, Chicago Style, and Liam the Charmer are far more proven than he is and deserve to be favored over him. Plus, the San Gabriel lacks pace, which could work against Cleopatra’s Strike’s late-running style.

Those factors considered, he needs to be 8-1 odds or higher to warrant support, even with a positive trainer angle.

As for the Pan Zareta, my view is that Goldberry is the more attractive of the two first-time Cox prospects. A winner of five of 10 starts, she is most effective on turf, over which she is 3 for 5.

Even in defeat on grass, she ran well, losing one race via disqualification after causing interference and running third in the other loss. That third came behind Oxford Comma, one of her foes in the Pan Zareta, a turf sprint in which contention runs deep.

Other prominent entries include the comebacking Hotshot Anna, one of the top synthetic runners of last year; the speedy Brielle’s Appeal; and the improving She’s All Skeet.

Goldberry seems a fair play if she sticks to her 6-1 morning line and provided the Pan Zareta remains on the grass following a rainy start to the year in New Orleans.

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