King: Early Breeders' Cup opinions

We are still three weeks away from betting the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar and opinions are already getting formed. I’ve heard fellow horseplayers express delight at the prospect of betting Arrogate to bounce back and win the Classic, while others are convinced Gun Runner’s form suggests he is a clear winner.

I’m reserving judgement on the Classic, wanting to see how Arrogate breezes at Del Mar, a surface over which he has not been as effective as elsewhere.

But that’s not to say I haven’t formed some opinions on other horses and Breeders’ Cup races. So let’s get to them:

Juvenile Fillies

Heavenly Love is my play in the Juvenile Fillies, provided she doesn’t land a lousy post. She caught the eye in winning her maiden at Kentucky Downs on the grass, and her romp in the Alcibiades last week on dirt at Keeneland furthered the high regard I have for her. She put herself in the race while showing controlled speed, easily dispatched the other leader, and drew away with authority with her ears pricked – suggesting plenty left in the tank.

Filly and Mare Sprint

I will be playing against Unique Bella in the Filly and Mare Sprint. Although unquestionably talented, she is a 3-year-old filly that will be matched against elite older sprinters. Yes, she won the L.A. Woman recently against older mares, but that field was far from elite.

Care to guess how many 3-year-olds have won the Filly and Mare sprint since its inception in 2007? Zero.

So if not Unique Bella, then who? There are numerous attractively priced alternatives. I’m leaning toward By the Moon, winner of three of five starts this year and a mare that excels at the seven-furlong distance of the race. She also runs well fresh, hinting she ought to replicate the effort she put forth in winning the Grade 1 Ballerina on Aug. 26 at Saratoga.

I also have long been a fan of Skye Diamonds, who has risen from the claiming ranks to become a graded stakes winner and arguably the top older female sprinter in California. I need to see her pick up the pace in her mornings, though. She went a half mile in 50.20 seconds Oct. 2 at Santa Anita and then in 51.40 on Oct. 7.

Turf Sprint

If the connections of Disco Partner elect to put up the money to supplement him to the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, I’m inclined to put up my own funds to back him to win. Supplementing would be quite an endorsement from his camp, given that his owners already have Pure Sensation for the race.

Granted, he is an unknown commodity at five furlongs on grass – having raced most successfully in longer grass sprints at Belmont going six to seven furlongs. But he beat Green Mask at Saratoga going 5 1/2 furlongs in 2016, and the latter developed into one of the top grass sprinters in the country this year before he was sadly injured in a workout and retired.

I wouldn’t want to take the chance on backing him trying a new distance if Disco Partner were favored, but as the third or fourth choice in the wagering, he seems a gamble worth taking.

Filly and Mare Turf

I fully expect Lady Eli to give her usual admirable account in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, but the depth and quality of the possible starters for that race suggest that might be a spot for horseplayers to spread in gimmicks and take a chance to beat her. Some of the American fillies have come close to her this year, and the forecasted European contingent for the race is talented.

Mile

Ribchester is widely regarded as Europe’s best turf miler, and should he come to Del Mar for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, he would likely go favored, provided he runs to expectations in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot next week.

I say no thanks to playing him as the favorite. Europeans miss the break far more often than American horses, and with early positioning so important in two-turn mile grass races, there is not enough reward on him as the chalk given the risk of regression, especially running on short rest and shipping to another continent.

Turf

Lastly, I’ll close with a live longshot – Sadler’s Joy in the Turf. He seems likely to get overlooked following a non-threatening fourth as the tepid favorite in the Joe Hirsch, but I’m willing to give him another chance. The Joe Hirsch came at Belmont in a two-turn grass race, and the more I analyze his form, the more convinced I am that he is better going three turns, which will be the case at Del Mar. His victories this year in the Sword Dancer and Pan American came under this three-turn setup.