King: Distance of San Gabriel just fine for Itsinthepost

Many of the 10 entrants in Saturday’s Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes at Santa Anita have form drawbacks or are disadvantaged in one way or another.

Flamboyant, Win the Space, Free Rose, and Smokey Image are winless since 2016. Top of the Game has never run better than third in three turf starts. Isotherm is returning from an extended layoff going back to March. Plus, a few others don’t appear to be fast or classy enough.

That leaves He Will, the runner-up in the Grade 2 Seabiscuit on Nov. 26, and three-time graded stakes winner Itsinthepost, who is cutting back in distance, as the most likely winners. And of that duo, I much prefer the Itsinthepost.

Although he hasn’t raced as short 1 1/8 miles since he was second in an off-the-turf running of the San Gabriel last January, I view his cutback in distance as a non-issue relative to the challenges other runners are facing. This is a versatile horse who already has won three of five races at 1 1/8 miles on turf and performed well in defeat last year on dirt, not his preferred surface.

He is simply a classy horse, as evidenced by wins in the San Luis Rey, Elkorn, and John Henry Turf Championship last year, and even if he is a little better suited to longer races, that appears to be offset by being well suited to Saturday’s company. He isn’t facing the likes of Talismanic, Beach Patrol, or Highland Reel, whom he most recently chased when a wide seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Turf on Nov. 4.

Never able to tuck in during that race, he raced in the three path over much of the three turns of the Breeders’ Cup Turf at 1 1/2 miles, covering 67 more feet than the ground-saving winner, Talismanic. Put to an early drive, Itsinthepost launched a threatening move on the final turn before tiring in the stretch to lose by only 5 1/4 lengths.

His Breeders’ Cup company line and achievements from 2017 won’t go unnoticed by the betting public and likely will make him the favorite Saturday. But all things considered, he is a legitimate and playable favorite.

Glitter Woman: Foxtrot Sally

The presence of several runaway first-out maiden winners in Saturday’s Glitter Woman at Gulfstream Park should create overlaid odds on Foxtrot Sally, who is favorably drawn toward the outside and poised to run well.

In early-season races for 3-year-olds, the public often bets on perceived promise, though I’d rather back one who is battle tested and therefore not as likely to regress. That is the case with Foxtrot Sally, who after winning a maiden race in her second start ran third in the one-mile Rags to Riches at Churchill Downs before fading to eighth in the Grade 2 Golden Rod. The Golden Rod ranked as the fastest graded stakes race for 2-year-old fillies of 2017 from a Beyer Speed Figure perspective, as the victorious Road to Victory posted a 91 figure.

Foxtrot Sally’s lone win came sprinting, and she should benefit from being cut back to six furlongs for the Glitter Woman. With others likely to duke it out early, Foxtrot Sally is likely to get a pressing or stalking trip in the clear under Javier Castellano.

Ginger Brew: Thewayiam

Sticking with the theme of backing class droppers, I am also encouraged by the chances of Thewayiam in the Ginger Brew Stakes at Gulfstream.

Thewayiam won her U.S. debut at Keeneland in October and was sent west to challenge Grade 3 company in the Jimmy Durante Stakes at Del Mar. She faded to 11th after chasing the pace. The loss was forgivable given the ship across the country for a young horse and the company she faced.

There is some talent in the Ginger Brew lineup, but the race seemingly didn’t land anyone of the caliber of Daddy Is a Legend, the Jimmy Durante winner. Andina Del Sur, whose lone race resulted in a two-length win going six furlongs at Belmont, will probably be the favorite. Hopefully, this will create worthwhile odds on Thewayiam, who probably goes off as the second or third choice in the wagering.