King: Destin can turn tables on Creator in Jim Dandy

With both Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and Preakness winner Exaggerator in Sunday’s Haskell at Monmouth Park, it would have been understandable if Saturday’s Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga had come up lacking in quality. But by no means is that the case.

In perusing the past performances, I went back and forth trying to make my selection, seeing little separating Creator, Destin, and Mohaymen – some of the leading 3-year-old males in the country behind Nyquist and Exaggerator. And if by chance they don’t run to their potential, Governor Malibu, a tough-luck fourth in the Belmont Stakes, also has a fighting chance.

In the end, I settled on Destin as my play, believing he probably will be the second betting choice – but in my mind, he is the most likely winner.

What tilts the balance in his favor? Tactical speed. Destin has the quickness to gain a favorable running position sitting right off outclassed front-runner Laoban, leaving him a chance to get the jump on his rivals, who are largely midpack or rear-half closers.

Granted, Destin was beaten with this trip – by the narrowest of margins – in the Belmont Stakes, where Creator caught him on the wire by a nose, and he has to deal with that rival once again. But with the Jim Dandy being 1 1/8 miles, not the 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont, the tables could be turned.

Also, Creator had a great trip for a closer in the Belmont, saving ground and angling out at the top of the stretch. That rarely happens for a horse rallying from 11th, leading me to believe that he could regress slightly with a ground-losing trip more typical of a late runner.

As for Mohaymen, he also finished in front of Destin in their last matchup, running fourth in the Kentucky Derby, where Destin was sixth. But again, Mohaymen had a very smooth trip for a horse with a midpack running style, while Destin was away poorly and forced to run much farther off the pace than usual.

Having been a onetime early favorite for the Derby and running competitively in that race, Mohaymen likely will be favored in the Jim Dandy, especially since trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has gotten off to such a hot start at the Saratoga meet.

If that proves to be the case, Destin may offer some degree of value – or at least as much as one can reasonably hope for in a race with six entrants.

Amsterdam Stakes

Earlier on Saturday at Saratoga, I like the chances of Counterforce in the Amsterdam, the fourth race on the card.

Backing him requires forgiving his last race, where he was eighth in the Woody Stephens Stakes on Belmont Day. And though the Amsterdam is a Grade 2, the same as the Woody Stephens, there is no doubt that the latter race was a far more demanding contest.

The Woody Stephens drew the best 3-year-old dirt sprinters in the country, while the Amsterdam clearly did not. Most of the better 3-year-old dirt sprinters are freshening for the King’s Bishop and sitting out this race, leaving it more like a Grade 3 or a listed-quality stakes race.

That class relief should be just what Counterforce needs to get back into a competitive groove. Prior to the Woody Stephens, where he just couldn’t keep up with faster horses, he won the Bachelor Stakes at Oaklawn and ran second in the Chick Lang at Pimlico. And if Counterforce can run back to those races, he has a strong chance to win.

Reflecting the soft nature of the Amsterdam, he is one of just two stakes winners in the lineup, with the other being 3-1 morning-line favorite King Kranz. And though I respect how honest King Kranz is, firing time and again, he could be disadvantaged by not having raced since May 6 and not working during the entire month of June.

As for the others, they have shown flashes of talent, and some have posted higher Beyer Speed Figures than Counterforce, but for the most part, their fastest races have come in allowance races. Matched against stakes horses, even modest ones, they could regress.

Such runners include Maniacal, Ready Dancer, and Mind Your Biscuits, who all exit first-level allowances, with Mind Your Biscuits coming out of a New York-bred entry-level allowance.