King: Del Mar pick three play for Wednesday, July 30

If Puppy Manners (#2, 4-1) has a winning day in the fourth race at Del Mar on Wednesday, hopefully I will as well. Taking into account expected value, he is my day’s top play, and one on which I will be focusing a pick three wager, in addition to playing him to win the race itself.

Race 2

Liking the races before the fourth race better than those after, my advised pick three play begins in the second race. Here, I plan to go four deep, using first-timer West Riding (#1, 2-1) and Live for Now (#6, 5-2) as ‘A’ plays, with Capraia (#3, 4-1) and Southern Sunshine (#4, 8-1) as lesser ‘B’ runners.

Although West Riding and Live for Now are the clear-cut favorites on the morning line, I think contention runs deeper in this race than the betting will reflect. So, it wouldn’t break my heart to see one of those ‘B’ runners come in, though I’d have tickets for a small amount, simply because it would knock out a lot of players.

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Race 5

Race 3

Number Five (#4, 3-1) and Romar Success (#9, 5-2) have about the same chances of winning this starter allowance on the grass – about 25 percent, by my estimation – and are ‘A’ plays. Their form is strongest, and they own the top-last race Beyer Speed Figures.

But I couldn’t feel fully confident using just those two – as both have been treated largely as sprinters, and they are going a mile on grass. So, Maxx the Giant (#6, 7-2) gets used as a secondary ‘B’ play, returning to his best surface on turf and being an experienced router, though his 1-for-21 record leaves something to be desired.

Race 4

Now comes time to single Puppy Manners (#2, 4-1). Although away since May, it is of little concern to this horseplayer given his active morning training. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer was likely just sitting on him, waiting for Del Mar and the chance to run him back on a synthetic surface and for a rich purse.

He didn’t fire at Santa Anita on dirt vs. classier but now sees a tag for the first time in this $50,000 claimer and is appealing based on what he did earlier this year at Golden Gate Fields when racing on the synthetic Tapeta surface there.

This is a horse who was good enough to run fourth in both the California Derby and El Camino Real – and if he returns to that form, he can run these down from off the pace.

The Bet

Plugging the horses into Ticketmaker as described above, using a $1 base wager and a budget of $26 yields the following tickets: