King: Del Mar pick three play for Thursday, Aug. 28
In contrast to the later races Thursday at Del Mar, contests this handicapper finds highly difficult to decipher, the early pick three looks hittable. So, let’s dive right in with a play in the gimmicks.
Race 1, $40,000 claiming
Coming off a third-place finish in an optional claimer, Popalicious (#4, 7-2) is a great win wager if she sticks to her morning line, though odds of 2-1 or 5-2 seem more likely. Her form is easy to appreciate, with her coming off a close third-place finish at Del Mar on Polytrack and having since worked a bullet half-mile Aug. 24.
She is a consistent miss who has hit the board in 13 of 16 starts and a filly who advanced all the way up into the third-level allowance ranks in the Northeast this spring before being sent to California.
In DRF’s Ticketmaker program, she goes down as an ‘A’ play – with a high probability of winning.
I also will use a couple of secondary ‘B’ horses in Lindz Winz (#2, 5-2) and On Golden Pawn (#3, 3-1). The former is an eight-time winner who starts for the winning tandem of trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and jockey Rafael Bejarano, and the latter is a synthetic specialist who won a starter $40,000 race July 31.
Race 2, optional claiming
Big Cazanova (#4, 7-5), Group 1-placed in Peru before being imported to the United States, has hit the board in all five of his races since coming to America. His last three starts, all with blinkers, have been his best, resulting in two victories, with a third-place finish sandwiched in between.
He set a furious pace in a one-mile race last out at Del Mar on July 26 and kept going to win by 3 1/2 lengths, earning a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. And a repeat of that effort would make him a short-priced winner. Not surprisingly, he is an ‘A.’
The rub is that he likely goes off at 4-5 odds or less with his strengths being so obvious.
Although he seems a probable winner, the preference therefore is not to single him, knowing the potential for a much higher payoff in the gimmicks if a secondary play can upset. I will use one backup ‘B’ play in A Red Tie Day (#1, 5-2), who has shown rapid improvement in recent months and just finished third in a similar race, missing second by just a neck.
Race 3, maiden special weight
Noble Bird (#6, 5-2) is the top selection, having run second in his last two starts against deeper fields than this one. And he has quality Beyers to go along with his sharp form.
Naturally, when handicapping lightly raced horses, it is also important to try to isolate potential move-up horses, and in this race, those horses appear to be second-time starter King Ptolemy (#2, 3-1), who has worked quickly leading into this for trainer Bob Baffert, and Nowalking (#4, 6-1), who after going unplaced in two starts now joins the barn of trainer Phil D’Amato, whose numbers are excellent with horses making their first starts for him.
The Tickets
Plugging the horses into Ticketmaker as outlined above, using the $1 minimum base wager and a budget of $21, yields the combinations below: